The Power of Conviction

Convictions based on illusions

Have you ever seen the road shimmer in the heat and swear that you are seeing a puddle in the distance? Or have you been lucky enough to see an even more elaborate Fata Morgana? Google it, there are some far out images to show what can happen. Your mind is deceived by the apparent evidence based on what you perceive. A mirage!

While harmless illusions like the above are fun and intriguing, there is another type of mirage that is far from harmless fun. Illusions that I’m talking about are punting illusions and they cost punters money and time; even more devastating is the fact that most of punters are not even aware of them. In fact I know some well respected punters that are so blinded by their convictions that their demise and the demise of others are based purely on the fact that they observe without evidence.

I should clarify; without long-term evidence. What you observe over a short period of time or a small sample of selections is NOT evidence. Yet every day, hundreds, if not thousands of punters Australia wide invest their money based on conviction obtained by seeing or worst still by just accepting such ‘evidence’. 

A personal example of this arose the other day when a friend of mine wanted to eliminate Northern Territory from his punting. There is enough ‘evidence’ that could sway many to extrapolate such idea into a ‘maxim’; poor liquidity, small fields, way too many poor quality horses as it’s often the last destination for many horses being sold down the ranks (or is it up the country). What about the heat? I could go on; these are just a sample of the general ‘ambiance of thoughts’ that many have about NT as a punting destination; for others its SA or TAS. Others create cultivate such ideas about distances or TAB numbers or about just about anything else associated with punting. 

The problem starts when such ‘thought ambiance’ meets some ‘cold hard facts’ obtained from observation of few days/weeks; we have all of a sudden a ‘supported theory’ that becomes ingrained into the punters mind. Such evidence is then further reinforced any time he/she looks at the results. Our mind is great at distinguishing patterns, especially when we are focusing on them. 

My friend wanted to eliminate NT because his ‘thought ambiance’ meet with the fact that he lost a few bets in a row on NT races, over a few weeks; on short favourites no less, while being in a general betting slump. Such powerful combination of emotional distress over an extended time frame created the need to do something about it. Once I would have wholeheartedly agreed with him, however now I don’t; this is thanks to the work I have done for Ratings2win programming and researching. 

I have learned that unless an idea can be tested, over thousands of samples and years of data then a conviction I have could be an unfounded mirage. 

Using the tools that I have at my disposal I am able to test my ideas to see the long-term and the true effect of any decisions I want to take. I can tell you that I am mostly disappointed with the results of my ideas; that is the nature of this game, you try and try and try. The difference is that I am disappointed in one test or a series of tests without any financial damage and without a dint in my betting confidence. More importantly when I find something that works, I am then confidant that it will continue to work! I just does!

Take the opposite situation of the general punter; they test their conviction over long-term by punting with their hard eared money and as the true results materialise their betting confidence dwindles which in turn makes it possible for them to make further mistakes and illogical decisions. As a result they start to form new ‘thoughts’ that are really destructive; “can’t be done”, “its all crap”,”the gods are against me” and so on. 

The time they have wasted is irrecoverably gone and now to boot they have even more mental crap to deal with and it’s likely that even if they come across a long term profitable method they will discard it at the first sign of trouble! They will then continue jumping from method to method while being in a tail spin or they discontinue their punting in total disillusionment with the whole industry and become bitter, cynical and angry and often broke.

So, finally what is the real truth regarding the performance of the betting method my friend was so quick to ‘analyse’ on his knowledge and the ‘evidence’? Based on the last 4 years the strike rate is 80% and nearly 16% positive POT. Oh yea.... those short priced favourites that no one can win on and the NT racing that is well below par produce great profit from a method based on the unemotional results of tested evidence. A stark reminder that what you are basing your betting decisions might be nothing but a mirage! 

Convictions based on real evidence

It’s lucky that my friend is intelligent and the knee jerk reaction decision he considered making lasted about as long as it took for me to do the test. I had the capability to run the test that he didn't and we both learned something valuable. For him the test reinforced the merits of his decision to purchase R2W Axis and he is now a very happy client and for me, well I was just happy to help.

Regardless whether your circumstances reflect the positive or the gloom scenario painted previously or something in between the answer to any racing question is to test your ideas long-term and over a substantial sample size. For that you need a database. 

Be it a stack of old ‘Daily Telegraphs’ or a pile of notes scribbled on index cards through to Excel or our R2W Axis program. Each method has a penalty; going through the newspapers/notes is slow and agonisingly prone to error. Excel is faster but you have to learn what you are doing to obtain the information and then to actually use it; also time consuming and unless you cover every possibility from the start you may not have all the data you need and let’s not mention programming/formula errors.

Axis is free from fatigue of repletion and does not require the skills and time to create formulas and code needed in Excel. It’s drawback to some is that it costs money; purely for research purposes the outlay is $1.08 per day. Personally I have to tell you if I found a program like Axis before we wrote Axis there would be no Axis. Everything I need is there and for a buck a day I wouldn't bother with anything else, I would have spent my time researching instead. 

What benefits can I obtain from a database?

Long-term analysis is needed to back up your convictions, findings, ideas or prejudices otherwise you are only ever guessing what the true outcome might be and in this game not knowing the truth is painful to endure. Please beware of using long-term test to create small sample size back fitted tests; the correct combination is long-term and large sample size.

Keep up with the pace of the industry. Times have changed, and methods have changed and the market is getting smarter all the time. This change means that in order to continue to find or hone your edge you would most likely benefit from the information in a database to have at least at the same type of tools as your competition. Many on this forum have Axis and other programs, and we all compete with each other in broad terms on the punting plane. This competition is the reason that we are limiting the number of licences for Axis, to preserve the edge we have and those that our clients find. 

Having a database is smart. The freedom and insights that it gives you has the same ‘self made’ level of satisfaction; but without wasting hundreds of hours through trial and error creating something that might do half the job. The tools that you have access to in Axis Historical are beyond compare with anything on the market today. Best of all when you find your edge you can seamlessly transition to receiving today’s form and create your selections for today’s betting.

Having a database is fast. Processing 50,000+ races in a few minutes with absolute accuracy with a single click of a button is a far cry from the hundreds of hours some ‘invest’ in their research to arrive at the same conclusion.

Having a Database is easy. Many believe that using a database requires some special skill. It does not; it requires imagination to search for a betting edge. As long as you can post on a forum you can operate a program like Axis. The hardest thing to do is the installation and we can do that for you remotely if needed so there is nothing to worry about.

Axis Database allows you to create unique content. With so many options in Axis, including the ability to import 5 external ratings and to create 2 ratings from scratch within Axis based on user specifications the unique edge that our clients enjoy is almost limitless.

Axis can positively impact your betting today; even if you have the ‘buck a day’ Axis Historical. You can analyse your daily bets as they happened and see where improvements could be made. You might be ignorant of the fact that your bets perform poorly with a certain combination of factors and eliminating them might save you thousands of dollars in the process as well as improving your over all betting confidence. You could analyse your betting approaches and your staking to see how you can minimise risk while getting the best out of your bets. You might be using ratings about which you know next to nothing (outside of the overall percentage strike rate which may be out of date); in this case Axis can help you uncover hidden potential in your investment. You could answer the questions you ask on the forum without wasting time waiting for some Good Samaritan to consult his database and give you the answer. You wouldn't have to reveal your profitable ideas inadvertently unless you wanted to and you could become a better contributor to the forum. 

There is no downside to owning a database. A database is like a book, when you don’t need it just sits there, when you do need it, the information that it can provide at your fingertips is invaluable. Axis can be just that for you, a reference point that you consult as needed. Some of our clients have called it addictive, and it is true, you may spend more time on it initially but the time you will spend on it will be time well spent. It will retain its value for many years to come as the program updates are free and all you have to do is keep the data up to date, or not. You will still have a valuable reference even if it’s not up to date. In the old days one could argue that the processing power or storage capacity of a PC prevented the rank and file punter from having the opportunity to run one. That is just a myth now with modern PCs, even my 8yo AMD testing clunker runs Axis just fine.

So is it time for a change? As I mentioned above, change is happening regardless. If you are not winning or if you feel/know that your method could use some fresh angles then continuing on the same path that you have been on up to now might be comfortable but is unlikely to yield anything different; you’ll get the same stuff and may be that isn’t cutting it any more.

While we all have different ideas and approaches to punting knowing the outcomes long-term increases your profitability and overall improves your enjoyment of horse punting. You simply are blind without that information and your competitors are happily passing you by. One thing is for sure, time is money; commencing at just $1.08 per day for Axis Historical, each 5 min you waste is costing you at least that much, just at minimum wage. Exactly how valuable is your time and what new angles could you uncover and what could you accomplish when your time is spent wisely using the Ratings2Win Axis?

How accurate is your form provider?

Recently we had some correspondence with a website member that proved to be quite interesting as it exposed the possible level of blissful ignorance and acceptance amongst the general punting public regarding the accuracy of form providers.

We are the first to admit, that to correct everything and maintain a database that is free from all error is a near impossible task given the daily avalanche of errors we ALL face resulting from faulty timing methods right through to human input errors and everything in between. It is also true that there are many that claim to do OK, at least for the short term, using the so called official form. Frankly, what else is anyone to do anyway, official form is all there is.

This last point is not quite correct, official form is NOT all there is. The serious professionals have for the longest time now produced their own form, usually starting with the so called official form and then replacing just about everything. These pros invest hundreds of thousands a year in time and money to make sure that the data they are using is correct.

That is one extreme and the other is the official form, sadly there is little in between that ordinary punters can use. There are corrected race times available such as those provided by Daily Sectionals produced by Vince Accardi) and whilst these can be a worthy investment, the ordinary punter still faces the task to actually make use of that data in a meaningful way. This usually requires a fair amount of programming skills and financial investment which is for the most apart not within reach of the average punter. Those that have access to this type of information know and enjoy the benefits that it provides. I should point out that Axis is capable of importing and making great use of all the Daily Sectionals data in a way that no other software can. This takes shape in the form of reading the data in a structured manner all the way to calculating pars so that comparing times across different tracks and distances actually makes sense.

It is difficult to convey the scope of errors without an example. Below you will find a table of 29 race time corrections that we (ratings2win) had to change. These occurred on 5/12/2013 while processing the form for next day. You might look and think, “Well that is not much from the many hundreds of past starts of each horse, 29 races is acceptable”. You might be right, had that been the case, but it’s not, each day a new list is generated often much larger; this list only deals with NEW errors, thus far not corrected. So those 29 errors will be corrected today and then again without a notice every time they come up. Over 98% of all races have incorrect times recorded whether they be overall, sectional or both. This sample includes errors ranging from 4 lengths to 0.1 lengths. If we accept that a horse is 3m long and travels 0.16sec per length, trying to consistently and accurately calculate ratings becomes erratic. We are dealing with discrepancies of up to 12 meters here and most race finishes come down to lot less. What is more, each error affects all horses in the race, and since generally most punters use at least the last few races to assess form, each timing error has the capacity to affect the form study and ratings calculations for a great deal of horses over a lengthy period of  time. Mix them all together and you get ..... well work it out for yourself.

Let’s have a look

RACE	Actual	Official	Lengths Diff
01/12/2013~GLDTO~8	84.9	84.8	0.6
01/12/2013~LISMO~3	72.61	72.35	1.6
01/12/2013~LISMO~8	86.15	85.76	2.4
01/12/2013~SWAN~1	57.77	57.68	0.6
23/11/2013~EAGLE~3	82.49	82.37	0.7
23/11/2013~EAGLE~6	82.59	82.46	0.8
23/11/2013~MORNI~3	73.72	73.92	-1.3
24/11/2013~CALOU~4	59.56	59.55	0.1
24/11/2013~CALOU~5	58.96	58.98	-0.1
25/11/2013~TIMAR~1	74.32	73.86	2.9
25/11/2013~TIMAR~2	73.57	73.13	2.7
25/11/2013~TIMAR~5	99.56	99.12	2.7
25/11/2013~TIMAR~7	133.42	132.77	4.1
27/11/2013~ASCOT~3	92.77	92.73	0.2
27/11/2013~BENDI~4	96.44	96.2	1.5
27/11/2013~BENDI~6	63.16	62.95	1.3
27/11/2013~EAGLE~3	85.24	85.11	0.8
27/11/2013~EAGLE~8	70.6	70.53	0.4
29/11/2013~MOONE~1	92.23	92.15	0.5
29/11/2013~MOONE~5	56.71	56.47	1.5
29/11/2013~MOONE~6	59.4	59.14	1.6
29/11/2013~MOONE~8	129.83	129.56	1.7
29/11/2013~PAKEN~7	82.08	82.09	-0.1
30/11/2013~CRANB~2	73.04	72.87	1.1
30/11/2013~GOLD~1	147.52	147.65	-0.8
30/11/2013~MORPI~8	83.56	83.59	-0.2
30/11/2013~ROSEH~5	90.46	90.41	0.3
30/11/2013~YARRA~4	71.04	70.86	1.1
30/11/2013~YARRA~6	121.4	121.21	1.2

Ok if time was all that was wrong, we could all just correct it right? But there are other issues that affect the form. Margin errors, track conditions designations errors and SP prices and so on occur with great regularity, down to the distance and class designations which pop up almost as frequently. As stated above, each error plagues each horse with decreasing importance over at least 5 starts and then lingers for the next however many starts that you have. The industry can’t even provide a single uniform name convention for Jockeys, Trainers and sometimes even track names.

So what does all that mean for the Axis clients? Simply we endeavour to fix all these errors. We face the daily frustration of fixing race times, missing/incorrect sectionals, incorrect margins/track conditions, trials assigned to the wrong horses, missing settling positions, incorrect settling positions, names, distances, class descriptions and others on our client’s behalf each morning. I would be first to admit that the never ending volume of errors and inconsistencies are such that some we do miss some, but believe that our tracking error rate is less than 2%.

The value of this is such that we do not provide race or sectional times and protect most of our corrections from being exported and shared around so Axis is not for everyone! The data is available within the program to be used as intended. This protects the integrity of the data for us and our clients and as a result we all enjoy the unique edge that our corrections provide well into the future. Coupling this with intelligent market research produces a superior level of performance long-term. Having the luxury of not having to second guess the many (good or bad) performances of individual horses, wondering if they are real or if the time was out by a second or more, goes a long way towards maintaining a clear mind so that we can then undertake more detailed form study or simply build systems which in turn allows all of us to execute our bets with more confidence. The same can’t be said for most other racing software. The final proof of course lies in the industry leading results, our client’s subscription take up and rate of renewal and the fact that we offer transparent daily result summaries that anyone who is inclined can view before checking them against their data.

Melbourne Cup 2013 Assessments

Hi All,

We have decided to make available our 2013 Melbourne Cup assessments for the entire 24 horse field.

Just click on the following link below to see how each runner is priced and profiles against the rest of the field. Green flagged runners represent the best value horses to back, whilst orange and red coloured horses are horses that you can include in other multiple type bets. Black coloured horses should be avoided.

We hope you enjoy tomorrows racing and wish everyone the best of luck.

http://www.ratings2win.com.au/learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/13-learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/54-melbourne-cup-2013-update

R2W Axis Software - Independent review

RACING MY PERFECT INVESTMENT 3

By Trevor Johns

CHAPTER TWO -BET SELECTION AND ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

RATINGS2WIN AXIS SOFTWARE

This software is the new kid on the block, founded by Paul Daily and Michal Matula, with many years of combined knowledge behind them. They have developed the very sophisticated software Axis, which may well become the new standard for accuracy, performance, and the easy learning curve. The Ratings2win company was launched in May 2012 with the sole aim of excellence of the product, and with the key data Axis generates that is not available in any other public software on the market, in my view, they have succeeded.

What is not generally known or spoken of, about horse racing software, is that each of them has been designed with a particular focus in mind, usually built around their flagship ratings product. And those incorporating analysis or system developer software, usually have features not found on the others. To those who ask me why I use more than one program, I explain it is like the old marriage counselor advice. You can’t get everything you want in one person, so you must compromise. And for me, it’s the same with racing software. For most people this doesn't matter, because each software product does a good job in isolation. But I am a researcher and numbers cruncher besides the betting side of things, and I need more. It’s early days yet, but the Axis software may well do it all.

Seeing as most of you would never have come across Axis before, I will run through some features that have proven to be very useful and profitable to me, some of which in one form or another are available elsewhere, but all not in the same package.

·   20 start form plus barrier trials.

·   Research and develop winning methods/systems.

·   Increase profit with the powerful and fast Betting Analyser.

·   Isolate specific horses/bets for back testing.

·   Use the most comprehensive Consensus to create your own market.

·   Live update with scratchings, track condition changes, etc.

·   Find key races to assess the strength of past form (P).

·   Accurate first and last sectional times (P).

·   Accurate speed maps (P).

·   Link it all together by implementing a winning selection process.

(P)denotes only available within the Professional Version.

For those of you currently using a competitor’s software program, and you wish to upgrade to one of the Ratings2win Axis software packages, contact Ratings2win and ask for your special transition discount. All this is backed up with a 14 day guarantee that if you are not completely satisfied with the Axis software, your full purchase price will be refunded. Paul will help you every step of way. This is cutting edge software. Seriously consider Axis as it may well prove to be the best yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm-1-QyzzqQ

Contact:  Paul Daily.

Website:  www.ratings2win.com.au

Email:      paul@ratings2win.com.au

Phone:    07 31032262

Twitter:   https://twitter.com/PaulD01

Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/ratings2win

New Axis release version 22-09-2013

We are pleased to announce the release of yet another upgrade for September; the result of our mission to continuously improve our products. This version contains several small improvements which enhance Axis functionality. It also includes a new innovation that again makes Axis the number 1 choice for ratings, system development and handicapping.

Ratings2Win is excited to release a function that is missing from all other commercial software providers. This function is the Daily Systems Automation. The first stages, explained below are but a starting point in our development of Axis Automation. These time saving features  assist clients by removing the mundane tasks from their workload. Obviously The less a client has to do to produce their selections the better. This function also reduces the likelihood of errors and missing selections.

Axis now automates the running of systems that the client sets up as those that are to be run on race day. This is seamlessly integrated into the program on several levels. When a day is loaded into the Race Day Portal (the main program interface) all the above systems are run automatically for our clients taking but a few seconds to complete. The resultant selections are displayed in a separate text file in race time order with each selection having the corresponding system name. It doesn't stop here, the program then flags every race where there is a system selection in the Races Grid View, and also flags each horse that is a selection in the Horses Field View. There is no way that you can miss a selection as you go through the races of the day.

This alone would set Axis apart from all other programs however we have gone further. Each time that you update Axis with new information such as scratchings, track condition changes, jockey changes, dividends, distance and other changes Axis will re-run the systems again seamlessly taking into account all this information and producing a fresh, up-to-the-minute current list of selections.

So that our clients do not miss any changes to their selections, Axis is capable of saying (by speaking over your PC sound system) any changes so that you are aware that your selections have changed. This is particularly effective if you have a large number of systems producing many selections.

Again this is seamless and requires nothing from the user other than a click of a button to update the information.

Once the results are known the overall systems selections printout will also include the results so that you can see at a glance how your selections have performed for the day.

Simply put, you will not miss out on a system selection if you have Axis doing the work! Your selections will be up-to-the-minute correct, leaving you to concentrate on your work and your betting.

Similar functionality is available to your black book selections. When you load a day in the Race Day Portal, your black book selections are printed in a separate document and Axis then flags every race where there is a black book selection in the Races Grid view and flags which horses are the selections in the Horses Field view. As with your systems, there is no way that you can miss a black book selection as you go through the races of the day. The list and flags would is also updated as new information comes to hand; in the case of a black book it will be a scratching or jockey changes.

We are excited to be able to offer our clients this type of automation as we know the value of having your selections and black book updated with the latest information as punters just like you, we deal with the dynamic nature of betting every day. A missed winning selection is hard to reconcile when such loss could be easily prevented by utilising the above functionality.

As indicated above this is just the first stage of where Axis is going in terms of automation. Above all we are punters, and having a program doing more and more of our work appeals to us, just as we know that it appeals to our clients and other punters. There is nothing like the security and confidence of executing a full day of betting knowing that all your selections are true.

Lastly I would like to note that this upgrade is FREE and available to all our clients in every subscription level. You know that once you purchase Axis at a specific level all upgrades that apply to that level are free regardless of the nature of benefits and size of the upgrade. This is just another way we help our clients to eliminate any hidden ongoing costs. Obviously in respect of our clients this  assists in their budgeting as all that is payable is the subscription cost of the data once their starter pack has been purchased.

Latest Axis Update version 13-09-2013

Daily Sectionals is the brain child of Melbourne based form whiz Vince Accardi. His interest in racing escalated from the time he was 18 and he has been seriously doing form for the past 30 years.

His sectional time analysis and Incremental Velocity Ratings are now provided to Racing Victoria Stewards, in addition to being pursued by a number of high profile form analysts around the country. His IVR Reports and Daily Sectionals are at the cutting edge of form analysis in this country.

As Vince is also client of Ratings2Win and uses Axis as his choice of racing software, we have decided to make available functionality to support not only Vince but other Ratings2Win clients that use Daily Sectionals IVR data. This evolution has been nearly 2 years in the making. 

In respect of our most recent Axis update we are pleased to announce five additional features namely:

Axis now supports the inclusion of additional sectional data brought to you by Daily Sectionals (DS), Vince Accardi. Clients of DS who subscribe to the IVR reports can now import that data directly into Axis for detailed analysis within the Past 20 data module. A new and unique way of interpreting the DS IVR rankings is now possible and is exclusive to DS clients that also use R2W Axis. These can be viewed within the Horse Search, Compare and Previous Encounters and Advanced Compare modules;

You now have the ability to analyse systems across more than 115 filters on a proportional betting basis. This is independent of the Betting Analysis module;

You will also notice that we have now provided a Horse Search shortcut accessible from all screens. This is located next to the Save Settings button at the bottom of each screen. You can still access Horse Search within the Pro Functions module;

Set Columns function available from the right click menu in Past 20 will allow you to set the order of columns to either show or hide any columns past the Track Condition Column. This setting is then replicated in the other Past 20 data contained in Horse Search and Key Race. The same setting will also be used in the Advanced Compare module. When you call up the Column Order module you will see the available columns in the left window. The default showing all columns is displayed in the right window. The right window is where you actually set up your columns. If you delete a column in the right window you will not see it in your Past data. If you change your mind you can always drag the column from the left window to view it once again. You can also use the reset default columns to set the entire lot of columns back to their default positions; and

Extended jockey and trainer rating classifications (see RDP Field View Grid manual for details).

UNDERSTANDING SPEED PERFORMANCE RATINGS (SPR)

Speed Performance Ratings (SPR) can be described as an indicator of relative (recent) ability. An understanding of SPR involves much more than a comparison of overall race times.

The DNA of SPR

Whilst the following individual factors aren't in isolation anything new, combined they hold the key towards a better understanding of the value of knowing what a SPR is, so that you can more accurately peg a horses ability.

The four important factors are:

1. Early speed;

2. Sectional times;

3. Peak speed; and

4. Overall race time

SPR in isolation are:

·         not designed to reliably predict the likely outcome of a race; and

·         not designed as an indicator of likely market prices/rank.

It is important to note that in some races, the predictive SPR will, for the most part be inaccurate when measured against market expectations and/or actual results. These inaccuracies can be either positive or negative and it is for this reason, that SPR should not be taken at face value or considered in isolation as an indicator of the likely outcome of a race. Rather, with a thorough understanding of the DNA of SPR and its components, SPR can be considered as a unique method of comparing race horses, many of which have not previously competed against each other or raced at the same tracks and/or distances.

SPR fall into two categories:

·         Historical (assigned to each historical run); or

·         Predictive (an SPR derived from a historical run using a unique algorithm that is then used to compare against other competitors)

Historical SPR

The race winner’s time is adjusted using a complex algorithm for a range of factors including track condition and other proprietary factors before being compared with a ‘par’ time for that track and distance.

The SPR calculated for each historical run is a numerical value that is firstly assigned to the winner of each race. For the purposes of this article and for Axis software users, consider 2 rating points as one length.

For those individuals that create, or for organizations that supply ratings, that are derived from the standard publicly available form (other than R2W), a Rating of 104 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran a time that (when adjusted) was equal to or faster than the par time;

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was shorter than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused faster times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

Conversely, a Rating of 86 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran only as fast as it needed to (to win the race)

·         the winner ran a very slow time (relative to ‘par’ and/or other races on the day);

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was longer than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused slow times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

In summary the Axis SPR assigned to each historical run can be considered an accurate and comparative measurement of how fast a horse ran (relative to par) on that occasion after adjustments have been made.

SPR Scale

Fast performances = high SPR

Slow performances = low SPR

The SPR for all other runners in a race (other than the winner) is derived from the rating assigned to the race winner before being downwardly adjusted for beaten margins.

Logically because horses run at a faster speed over 1000m than they do at 2400m, the incremental adjustment is less as the distance increases. Again I suggest, for the purposes of explanation, that you can assume an adjustment of 2 rating points as being equal to 1 length.

E.g. If a race winner gets an SPR of 100, a horse beaten 2 lengths would get an SPR of ~96.

Predictive SPR

Within Axis, a complex algorithm selects a historical SPR that is then assigned as a run that is representative of each horse’s current ability and likely fitness level. That run is called the qualifying run (QR).

The R2W SPR algorithm encompasses the following assumptions:

·         high ratings can’t be produced by unfit horses;

·         recent form is far more reliable as an indicator of current ability and likely fitness that older form;

·         generally speaking, trainers will place their horses to the best advantage;

·         horses that perform well when resuming from spells will generally continue to do so up to the age of around five; and

·         importantly a good rating can be discarded as an indicator of current ability and fitness after approximately 42 days.

Having selected an appropriate QR, the SPR algorithm then assigns that numerical value to each runner as a Base SPR. This is then interrogated by the R2W computer before determining whether any adjustment is warranted. Once this process is complete the predictive SPR is displayed in the field view of Axis.

Caution needs to be applied to races  that are run in fast times

As has been explained above, races run in fast times (relative to par times) produce high ratings. However, it does not always follow that all horses that run a fast time, and therefore generating a high SPR will subsequently ‘run up’ to that performance at their next race start. However, it is true that horses that can run genuinely fast times, particularly in good class races, have more ability than other horses they may race against in future.

Why R2W SPR are more accurate than other commercially available ratings

Without going into too much detail and to preserve our unique IP, R2W SPR are adjusted for the many errors that exist in overall race times, sectionals, distances, track conditions, class of race etc. We outsource to a private organisation that caters to our specific needs and those of some of Australia's biggest and most successful punters. As a guide it is fair and accurate to suggest that more than 90% of official race and sectional times reordered in Australia are incorrect and contain errors that are often significant. Being able to deliver SPR that are adjusted for these errors is one fundamental reason as to why we and our clients are able to maintain and enjoy a profitable betting edge. No other software provider that we are aware of provides the total solution to this problem, that is for ALL TAB races Australia wide.