Melbourne Cup 2013 Assessments

Hi All,

We have decided to make available our 2013 Melbourne Cup assessments for the entire 24 horse field.

Just click on the following link below to see how each runner is priced and profiles against the rest of the field. Green flagged runners represent the best value horses to back, whilst orange and red coloured horses are horses that you can include in other multiple type bets. Black coloured horses should be avoided.

We hope you enjoy tomorrows racing and wish everyone the best of luck.

http://www.ratings2win.com.au/learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/13-learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/54-melbourne-cup-2013-update

R2W Axis Software - Independent review

RACING MY PERFECT INVESTMENT 3

By Trevor Johns

CHAPTER TWO -BET SELECTION AND ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

RATINGS2WIN AXIS SOFTWARE

This software is the new kid on the block, founded by Paul Daily and Michal Matula, with many years of combined knowledge behind them. They have developed the very sophisticated software Axis, which may well become the new standard for accuracy, performance, and the easy learning curve. The Ratings2win company was launched in May 2012 with the sole aim of excellence of the product, and with the key data Axis generates that is not available in any other public software on the market, in my view, they have succeeded.

What is not generally known or spoken of, about horse racing software, is that each of them has been designed with a particular focus in mind, usually built around their flagship ratings product. And those incorporating analysis or system developer software, usually have features not found on the others. To those who ask me why I use more than one program, I explain it is like the old marriage counselor advice. You can’t get everything you want in one person, so you must compromise. And for me, it’s the same with racing software. For most people this doesn't matter, because each software product does a good job in isolation. But I am a researcher and numbers cruncher besides the betting side of things, and I need more. It’s early days yet, but the Axis software may well do it all.

Seeing as most of you would never have come across Axis before, I will run through some features that have proven to be very useful and profitable to me, some of which in one form or another are available elsewhere, but all not in the same package.

·   20 start form plus barrier trials.

·   Research and develop winning methods/systems.

·   Increase profit with the powerful and fast Betting Analyser.

·   Isolate specific horses/bets for back testing.

·   Use the most comprehensive Consensus to create your own market.

·   Live update with scratchings, track condition changes, etc.

·   Find key races to assess the strength of past form (P).

·   Accurate first and last sectional times (P).

·   Accurate speed maps (P).

·   Link it all together by implementing a winning selection process.

(P)denotes only available within the Professional Version.

For those of you currently using a competitor’s software program, and you wish to upgrade to one of the Ratings2win Axis software packages, contact Ratings2win and ask for your special transition discount. All this is backed up with a 14 day guarantee that if you are not completely satisfied with the Axis software, your full purchase price will be refunded. Paul will help you every step of way. This is cutting edge software. Seriously consider Axis as it may well prove to be the best yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm-1-QyzzqQ

Contact:  Paul Daily.

Website:  www.ratings2win.com.au

Email:      paul@ratings2win.com.au

Phone:    07 31032262

Twitter:   https://twitter.com/PaulD01

Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/ratings2win

New Axis release version 22-09-2013

We are pleased to announce the release of yet another upgrade for September; the result of our mission to continuously improve our products. This version contains several small improvements which enhance Axis functionality. It also includes a new innovation that again makes Axis the number 1 choice for ratings, system development and handicapping.

Ratings2Win is excited to release a function that is missing from all other commercial software providers. This function is the Daily Systems Automation. The first stages, explained below are but a starting point in our development of Axis Automation. These time saving features  assist clients by removing the mundane tasks from their workload. Obviously The less a client has to do to produce their selections the better. This function also reduces the likelihood of errors and missing selections.

Axis now automates the running of systems that the client sets up as those that are to be run on race day. This is seamlessly integrated into the program on several levels. When a day is loaded into the Race Day Portal (the main program interface) all the above systems are run automatically for our clients taking but a few seconds to complete. The resultant selections are displayed in a separate text file in race time order with each selection having the corresponding system name. It doesn't stop here, the program then flags every race where there is a system selection in the Races Grid View, and also flags each horse that is a selection in the Horses Field View. There is no way that you can miss a selection as you go through the races of the day.

This alone would set Axis apart from all other programs however we have gone further. Each time that you update Axis with new information such as scratchings, track condition changes, jockey changes, dividends, distance and other changes Axis will re-run the systems again seamlessly taking into account all this information and producing a fresh, up-to-the-minute current list of selections.

So that our clients do not miss any changes to their selections, Axis is capable of saying (by speaking over your PC sound system) any changes so that you are aware that your selections have changed. This is particularly effective if you have a large number of systems producing many selections.

Again this is seamless and requires nothing from the user other than a click of a button to update the information.

Once the results are known the overall systems selections printout will also include the results so that you can see at a glance how your selections have performed for the day.

Simply put, you will not miss out on a system selection if you have Axis doing the work! Your selections will be up-to-the-minute correct, leaving you to concentrate on your work and your betting.

Similar functionality is available to your black book selections. When you load a day in the Race Day Portal, your black book selections are printed in a separate document and Axis then flags every race where there is a black book selection in the Races Grid view and flags which horses are the selections in the Horses Field view. As with your systems, there is no way that you can miss a black book selection as you go through the races of the day. The list and flags would is also updated as new information comes to hand; in the case of a black book it will be a scratching or jockey changes.

We are excited to be able to offer our clients this type of automation as we know the value of having your selections and black book updated with the latest information as punters just like you, we deal with the dynamic nature of betting every day. A missed winning selection is hard to reconcile when such loss could be easily prevented by utilising the above functionality.

As indicated above this is just the first stage of where Axis is going in terms of automation. Above all we are punters, and having a program doing more and more of our work appeals to us, just as we know that it appeals to our clients and other punters. There is nothing like the security and confidence of executing a full day of betting knowing that all your selections are true.

Lastly I would like to note that this upgrade is FREE and available to all our clients in every subscription level. You know that once you purchase Axis at a specific level all upgrades that apply to that level are free regardless of the nature of benefits and size of the upgrade. This is just another way we help our clients to eliminate any hidden ongoing costs. Obviously in respect of our clients this  assists in their budgeting as all that is payable is the subscription cost of the data once their starter pack has been purchased.

Latest Axis Update version 13-09-2013

Daily Sectionals is the brain child of Melbourne based form whiz Vince Accardi. His interest in racing escalated from the time he was 18 and he has been seriously doing form for the past 30 years.

His sectional time analysis and Incremental Velocity Ratings are now provided to Racing Victoria Stewards, in addition to being pursued by a number of high profile form analysts around the country. His IVR Reports and Daily Sectionals are at the cutting edge of form analysis in this country.

As Vince is also client of Ratings2Win and uses Axis as his choice of racing software, we have decided to make available functionality to support not only Vince but other Ratings2Win clients that use Daily Sectionals IVR data. This evolution has been nearly 2 years in the making. 

In respect of our most recent Axis update we are pleased to announce five additional features namely:

Axis now supports the inclusion of additional sectional data brought to you by Daily Sectionals (DS), Vince Accardi. Clients of DS who subscribe to the IVR reports can now import that data directly into Axis for detailed analysis within the Past 20 data module. A new and unique way of interpreting the DS IVR rankings is now possible and is exclusive to DS clients that also use R2W Axis. These can be viewed within the Horse Search, Compare and Previous Encounters and Advanced Compare modules;

You now have the ability to analyse systems across more than 115 filters on a proportional betting basis. This is independent of the Betting Analysis module;

You will also notice that we have now provided a Horse Search shortcut accessible from all screens. This is located next to the Save Settings button at the bottom of each screen. You can still access Horse Search within the Pro Functions module;

Set Columns function available from the right click menu in Past 20 will allow you to set the order of columns to either show or hide any columns past the Track Condition Column. This setting is then replicated in the other Past 20 data contained in Horse Search and Key Race. The same setting will also be used in the Advanced Compare module. When you call up the Column Order module you will see the available columns in the left window. The default showing all columns is displayed in the right window. The right window is where you actually set up your columns. If you delete a column in the right window you will not see it in your Past data. If you change your mind you can always drag the column from the left window to view it once again. You can also use the reset default columns to set the entire lot of columns back to their default positions; and

Extended jockey and trainer rating classifications (see RDP Field View Grid manual for details).

UNDERSTANDING SPEED PERFORMANCE RATINGS (SPR)

Speed Performance Ratings (SPR) can be described as an indicator of relative (recent) ability. An understanding of SPR involves much more than a comparison of overall race times.

The DNA of SPR

Whilst the following individual factors aren't in isolation anything new, combined they hold the key towards a better understanding of the value of knowing what a SPR is, so that you can more accurately peg a horses ability.

The four important factors are:

1. Early speed;

2. Sectional times;

3. Peak speed; and

4. Overall race time

SPR in isolation are:

·         not designed to reliably predict the likely outcome of a race; and

·         not designed as an indicator of likely market prices/rank.

It is important to note that in some races, the predictive SPR will, for the most part be inaccurate when measured against market expectations and/or actual results. These inaccuracies can be either positive or negative and it is for this reason, that SPR should not be taken at face value or considered in isolation as an indicator of the likely outcome of a race. Rather, with a thorough understanding of the DNA of SPR and its components, SPR can be considered as a unique method of comparing race horses, many of which have not previously competed against each other or raced at the same tracks and/or distances.

SPR fall into two categories:

·         Historical (assigned to each historical run); or

·         Predictive (an SPR derived from a historical run using a unique algorithm that is then used to compare against other competitors)

Historical SPR

The race winner’s time is adjusted using a complex algorithm for a range of factors including track condition and other proprietary factors before being compared with a ‘par’ time for that track and distance.

The SPR calculated for each historical run is a numerical value that is firstly assigned to the winner of each race. For the purposes of this article and for Axis software users, consider 2 rating points as one length.

For those individuals that create, or for organizations that supply ratings, that are derived from the standard publicly available form (other than R2W), a Rating of 104 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran a time that (when adjusted) was equal to or faster than the par time;

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was shorter than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused faster times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

Conversely, a Rating of 86 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran only as fast as it needed to (to win the race)

·         the winner ran a very slow time (relative to ‘par’ and/or other races on the day);

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was longer than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused slow times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

In summary the Axis SPR assigned to each historical run can be considered an accurate and comparative measurement of how fast a horse ran (relative to par) on that occasion after adjustments have been made.

SPR Scale

Fast performances = high SPR

Slow performances = low SPR

The SPR for all other runners in a race (other than the winner) is derived from the rating assigned to the race winner before being downwardly adjusted for beaten margins.

Logically because horses run at a faster speed over 1000m than they do at 2400m, the incremental adjustment is less as the distance increases. Again I suggest, for the purposes of explanation, that you can assume an adjustment of 2 rating points as being equal to 1 length.

E.g. If a race winner gets an SPR of 100, a horse beaten 2 lengths would get an SPR of ~96.

Predictive SPR

Within Axis, a complex algorithm selects a historical SPR that is then assigned as a run that is representative of each horse’s current ability and likely fitness level. That run is called the qualifying run (QR).

The R2W SPR algorithm encompasses the following assumptions:

·         high ratings can’t be produced by unfit horses;

·         recent form is far more reliable as an indicator of current ability and likely fitness that older form;

·         generally speaking, trainers will place their horses to the best advantage;

·         horses that perform well when resuming from spells will generally continue to do so up to the age of around five; and

·         importantly a good rating can be discarded as an indicator of current ability and fitness after approximately 42 days.

Having selected an appropriate QR, the SPR algorithm then assigns that numerical value to each runner as a Base SPR. This is then interrogated by the R2W computer before determining whether any adjustment is warranted. Once this process is complete the predictive SPR is displayed in the field view of Axis.

Caution needs to be applied to races  that are run in fast times

As has been explained above, races run in fast times (relative to par times) produce high ratings. However, it does not always follow that all horses that run a fast time, and therefore generating a high SPR will subsequently ‘run up’ to that performance at their next race start. However, it is true that horses that can run genuinely fast times, particularly in good class races, have more ability than other horses they may race against in future.

Why R2W SPR are more accurate than other commercially available ratings

Without going into too much detail and to preserve our unique IP, R2W SPR are adjusted for the many errors that exist in overall race times, sectionals, distances, track conditions, class of race etc. We outsource to a private organisation that caters to our specific needs and those of some of Australia's biggest and most successful punters. As a guide it is fair and accurate to suggest that more than 90% of official race and sectional times reordered in Australia are incorrect and contain errors that are often significant. Being able to deliver SPR that are adjusted for these errors is one fundamental reason as to why we and our clients are able to maintain and enjoy a profitable betting edge. No other software provider that we are aware of provides the total solution to this problem, that is for ALL TAB races Australia wide.

Profitable Systems - A practical demonstration

One of the easiest ways to show the powerful nature of Axis is to do with it what it was designed for. Axis was designed to suit the needs of two types of diametrically opposite users. The Professional form analyst will find everything that they need contained within the tools and data available of the Professional version of Axis. Depending on their requirements, the Systems punter will also find everything that they need to develop, test and analyse systems like never before in either the Classic or Advanced versions.

Professional form analysts usually work to a specific process with their success largely dependent on their analytical skills and experience. As such it is not easy to show an example in a practical demonstration. In this post we want to concentrate on showing how the Systems punter, can benefit from using Axis in their day to day punting. By using systems, we can show you some immediate results and examples of what can be created using the Axis software. That is not to say that a Professional form analyst can’t also use systems to isolate shortlists of potential selections rather than trying to handicap the vast number of races available each day. The one main point of difference to remember with Axis is that analysing form is just a small part of its arsenal when you look at developing systems. The art of traditional form study using official race data is commonplace. A R2W we truly believe that  betting edge lies within the tools, combination of  our ratings and other data variables which can then be mixed so as to provide you with a range of profitable systems.

Here is a quick list of points that you should consider when looking at a system.

Number of selections: Unless a system that has for example less than 3 bets per week, a corresponding  sample size of at least of 500 bets, then the possibility is high that the results you have may be not be a true indication of likely performance. The reason why is because mathematical variance influences sets of data especially when the sample size is low. To counter this you need a much larger sample size in order to be confident that when you wager the selections contained within the system going forward, that it is more likely to produce results similar to the data sample tested.

A great illustration of what we are talking about is to toss a coin 10 times. Heads or Tails? We all know that the true odds of either a head or a tail are 50% ($2.00 dividend). The reality is though over a small sample (10 tosses) the results will be anywhere from 10 heads to 10 tails. Try 100 tosses and then a 1,000 tosses. At 1,000 tosses you will discover that the range of results experienced will be closer to expectations. The more tosses the more likely that the true nature of the ‘system’ will be revealed. If you have 50 bets a year do you think that you have the means of accurately predicting the long-term performance of a system? What if you have a suite of systems run concurrently. Even in this instance the larger sample of bets cannot be used confidently as a marker of future performance because in the end each system is its own entity.

Rules: The great thing about having a large sample, is that back-fitted systems with illogical rules do not perform as favorably as they have a tendency with those that have a smaller sample. Generally the lower the sample size has the user falling into the trap of applying a greater the number of filters that in turn display an unrealistic expectation of likely future outcomes. There is nothing wrong with filters if they are applied correctly. Long term filters that are applied using carefully well thought out logic will prevail whereas those that are back fitted will not.

As an example of the advantages of using Axis, we have displayed the results from some of our successful systems.  We understand the serious nature of betting for a profit and as such it is not a pursuit of fun or entertainment. Like ourselves and our products, our Axis software is suitable for anyone who already has or wants to develop a serious and profitable approach to their betting. We use many of the same functions in Axis for our own betting and we depend on the continued performance of our ratings, tool and data just as our clients do. The simple economic reasons as to why we are willing to share our successful tools and data with our clients is that they participate in meeting the ongoing development and data costs through their subscriptions.

Two of the systems results found below are featured on this forum and our website. We provide free tips from a currently featured system. Our results and past performance are on public record. Outside of these two systems, no other system is being sold, given away or thrown in with an Axis purchase, that is not what we are about.  What we are showing you is but a sample of the capabilities of this tool,  the work, is what you will have to do yourself!

You will need to devote some time to become familiar with the Axis software. By investing your time you will learn what it takes to become a long term winning punter. You will have the opportunity to research and develop profitable systems whilst availing yourself with some of best education and advice from successful punters. Having said that, the software is simple and intuitive to use. We are more than happy to assist you, so that you can derive the benefits that Axis offers, regardless of whether you are a Professional form analyst or Systems punter. This will help  you in become a better and more educated punter. We will arm you with the knowledge you need to be successful. We pride ourselves on and are known for, our excellent customer service. Our goal for this company is to develop relationships with our clients and partners that are long term, successful and mutually profitable.

The system results below are based on individual systems run over the last 1243 days with the profits based on betting a flat 1% of your betting bank, assuming a $10,000 starting bank. The goal was to produce around 1-2 bets per system per day using a realistic mix of profitable long-term systems that offer a combination of styles using both long shots and favourites.

System Name	Bets	Wins	Strike	Collect	Avg. Div	Profit	Bank Growth
Profitable Favourites	2,838	1,316	46.4%	$297,272	$2.25	$13,372	1.34 x
Home Track Advantage	2,817	796	28.3%	$322,302	$4.05	$40,600	4.06 x
Sample System No. 1	1,209	244	20.2%	$153,680	$6.30	$32,780	3.28 x
Sample System No. 2	1,513	115	7.6%	$176,820	$15.40	$25,520	2.55 x

Each of these systems can be improved using a combination of the better market prices available and by employing wagering techniques such as proportional betting.

Over the 3.5 year period under review, if you had invested even just $10 on each selection, and used the basic pricing models given, you would have fully funded the costs of your Axis and subscription and had money to spend. What about all the other profitable systems that you could create? This highlights just one example of how Axis can benefit you and turn you into a long term winning punter.

Contact us today and ask about our 14-day No Risk Money Back Guarantee on the entire Axis product range.

Good Punting,

The R2W Team

Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

There has always been debate from form analysts and media commentators regarding the issue of whether a home track advantage exists for individual trainers. Some examples of this would be Peter Snowden (Warwick Farm), Gai Waterhouse (Randwick), and Chris Waller (Rosehill).

Can you make money from horses that have a Home Track Advantage? 

The statistics show that for metropolitan racing the notion of home track advantage does not exist. The same does not apply though to provincial and country racing. In these jurisdictions our data demonstrates conclusively that when combined with a few other unique variables (found only in R2W data) that the home track advantage can deliver significant profits from a strong sample size.

So the answer to can you make money from horses that have a home track advantage? is YES, providing you have access to the unique data and variables contained within R2W Axis.

Following on from our successful Profitable Favourites system, we have once again employed the Axis Selection Finder and Analyser for the purposes of developing a system based around the Home Track Advantage theme. For a limited period of time the FREE selections from this system will be showcased on this forum and our website. They will take over from the Profitable Favourites selections.

The historical results for the Home Track Advantage system are as follows:

Long term Results: 05/03/2010 to 31/07/2013. 1245 days.

Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,822

(2 per day on average)

Strike Rate - 28.2%

Positive POT 14.30% (best of NSW/SP). 

See the results file updated monthly to July 2013

Details: These selections are bets regardless of price or track condition. Expect around 2 selections per day on average.

Betting Analysis:

Assumes a starting bank of $10,000.

Flat Staking betting 1% of starting bank: $40,522.00, maximum bank risk 22.4% and average bank risk 9.8%.

Constant Proportional betting to collect 4% of starting bank: $24,128.69, maximum bank risk 19.3% and average bank risk 8.5%.

Variable Proportional betting to collect 4% of bank: $57,662.25, maximum bank risk 52.8% and average bank risk 11.7%.

Importantly you can obtain the rules for any system found on this forum or our website by purchasing the appropriate Axis stater pack and annual subscription. Please contact us for more details.

Part 1 - Back this horse next time it runs in a suitable race

No prizes for guessing that today's piece is all about leaving notes for yourself as a reminder of something that the horse did and in turn something that you should do next time it runs. As punters we often refer to these situations as Comments and/or a Black book entry. These issues will be covered in a two party series of posts.

Making  Comments

Unless we are talking about small notations that  you might enter as you are black booking a horse, race / video comments are only generally recorded by professional punters.

For the professional punter that records comments for each horse in each race, we have developed a module within Axis named  "Axis Pro Functions" that is the result of extended consultation with several professional punters who make race/video comments frequently. This simple yet powerful  facility allows them to perform this function with a of fuss and has the ability to sort and organise the information using several but relevant ways that allow for the separation between meeting, race, horse comments and personal horse flags.

Importantly, the ability to make comments is available to everyone using the Race Day Portal (the softwares main interface). Comments are there to remind you of situations and events that you would otherwise forget about, especially with the amount of racing today. You don’t have to comment on every horse, race or meeting. For instance if you wanted to make note that the ’fence was off’ or that there was a ‘leader bias’ at a meeting then its as simple as entering a meeting comment against just one horse from that meeting. Axis then  takes care of the rest by populating the comment against all runners from that meeting. The same goes for race comments (populates the comment against all runners from the race etc). These reminders can make a big difference and stay with the horse, race or meeting  as part of the historical form within Axis. Of course you can at any time edit or delete a comment as necessary.

Making a comment is an art form in itself. We have come across some less experienced clients  that make the mistake of entering too much detail into their comments. This is a waste of time both in terms of  reading and writing apart from which it uses additional computer recourses to both save and/or retrieve the data.

Take a look at this horse comment:

“Blasted out of the barriers, eyeballed the leaders 3 wide, kicked at the turn and courageously battled on just beaten on the line.”

Very detailed and it paints a picture when you read it! Firstly it took time to write, more importantly it takes time to read and comprehend and when you have to read 16 of these just to compare horses last starts from just one race you’d better watch the clock so that the race does not start before you are finished reading. Comments like these serve no benefit to you.

If you intend to make comments on a regular basis then you need to be consistent about the way you make them. Consistency is the cornerstone of punting and it applies to making comments just the same as to betting or anything else. Your comments should have a structure which answers the necessary questions as to what happened in the race. Let’s breakdown the above comment and see what relevant information we can extract from it.

The first part deals with how the horse began, next with what happened in running and lastly what happened at the turn and in the straight. It is also a good idea to read the stewards reports so that you can note of any important information that occurred post race or identify something that you might have missed in running.

Further, we have no need to write words when a few acronyms make reading speedy and precise.  So the format is “START,INRUNNING,TURN/STRAIGHT,AFTER”. This turns our above comment into:

Jg h3w kt bog  Interpreter please!

“Jumped good, handy 3wide, kicked (at the turn) boxed on good ”

You can just make these comments only when something important happens because commenting on how every horse jumps is wasting your time as most horses jump OK.  Just like any other language in a few weeks you’ll understand your own version of abbreviated comments with absolute fluidity. You will be able to record them quickly and read them just as fast saving you valuable time. No you have the ability to open doors that were previously not available due to all of this extra condensed information. It takes work in order achieve the results that most don't, but it's doing what others don't or won’t that sets successful punters from those who make up the losing statistics. Axis  provides these and other necessary tools that are not available in other racing software packages, tools that will transform your punting and assist to keep you in front of the game.

The R2W Team

Ratings2Win - How can we help you?

We have this week released another update to our highly acclaimed Axis software. Axis is a very involved program, yet one of the great things about it is it’s easy to use. Whilst there are features that don't often make the 'front page' new of our website, Axis really can be everything to everyone. Obviously that cannot be amply explained in three lines so our idea is to start this thread, a blog if you like so that we can let you know of the new things that are coming into and already exist within the software.

We have between us over 45 years of racing and professional betting experience.  Accordingly  we are  familiar with the trials and trepidation's, fears and failures that most punters encounter why? Because we have been there as well. If you want to find out more about us, our company and why our products and services will help you become a long term winning punter, then we suggest that you start here and/or visit our website www.ratings2win.com.au 

We trust that you will find the information contained on this blog, our website, Twitter, Facebook etc useful, even if you have no intention of using our Axis software or SRA Selection Service.

Finally when you discover that  partnering up ratings2win makes sense and is appropriate for you, PLEASE let us know that you have found us through Blogger.

Successful punting

The R2W Team