http://www.ratings2win.com.au/
Many relevant angles to take out for the keen listener. Learn from what a professional punter knows.
Providers of leading horse racing software covering all Australian TAB meetings. Professional selections and race assessments. Packages to suit all punters.
Wednesday, 28 January 2015
Thursday, 7 August 2014
NEW - SRA Gold and SRA Audio - commences 9 August, 2014
Hi
All,
We
are pleased to announce an association with the team from Macbet.
Macbet
was founded by John Mcleod who comes from a long family line of successful
Bookmakers. He is a 4th generation Bookmaker, with his great grandfather,
Grandfather Bill Mcleod, father John Mcleod (senior) and himself all rails
Bookmakers in their time. His other grandfather Reg Rowley was a prominent
horse trainer, along with his uncle, Henry Davis from the infamous ‘GETTING
CLOSER’ plunge.
Together
we have combined the best racing intelligence, hours of video and form analysis
so that we can deliver to clients that winning edge much needed to stay ahead
in such a competitive market. There is a common theme that track bias and
fluctuating markets has made it near impossible to tip and bet with confidence
on race morning. We will change that attitude! In that context, we are now
making available two distinct betting services. The first official rollout
of these two services will be for this Saturday 9 August, 2014.
Our SRA
Gold and SRA Audio provide selections and expert commentary for
keen punters that want to focus their betting on selected races. Both services
cover Saturday metropolitan races held in Brisbane, Perth and Melbourne and are
available on a four (4) week subscription per state or a discounted
package of all three.
SRA
Gold
Provides clients with quality selections
and staking advice for selected races judged by the R2W and Macbet team to
provide the best betting opportunities. A short comment for each runner along
with a general race comment make this service an essential tool for punters
wanting to take advantage of the value in early markets. Click on the sample
links below to view the SRA Gold service.
SRA
Audio
Provides
clients with a summary of the most accurate race to race racing intelligence
currently available. An MMS is sent directly to your phone approximately 15-25
mins prior to the scheduled start of each race. This audio service will provide
clients with our latest thoughts and advice on how we intend playing the
event. It contains our selections (allowing for changes in track bias) as well
as our assessed odds for the main chances. This service is best suited to those
attending the track or able to place bets during the course of a
meeting. Click on the sample links below to hear the SRA Audio service.
To
see samples of these two services please visit http://www.ratings2win.com.au/our-products/sra-in-detail
and click on the sample links. If you have any questions regarding either
service feel free to contact us on 07 3103 2262 during business hours.
If
you would like to reserve your place amongst the limited subscriptions
available then go straight to our Product Centre by clicking http://www.ratings2win.com.au/our-products/purchase-products
and go to the SRA section.
The R2W Team
Thursday, 26 June 2014
Subscription status and important changes
Hi All,
We are pleased to announce that, we have achieved our
subscription targets that were set out as part of our overall business plan
back in 2012. In that context please be advised that we have now reached
capacity. We have decided to reserve a small number of places which as
of today (26/6/2014) is 11, for clients of our existing referral partners.
These are expected to be filled over the coming weeks and apply only to
Professional subscriptions.
As a result of these targets being met, we will be
implementing changes consistent with our business plan. These include changes
to the daily free tips, the posting of results and the manner in which
prospective clients will still be able to take advantage of an Axis software
subscription. In addition there will be some other significant announcements
that will expand the professional product offerings that ratings2win has come
to be renowned for.
From July 1 2014:
- All Daily Free Tips will cease to be published;
- The daily posting of results will now revert to a monthly cycle;
- R2W Axis systems will no longer be available for purchase;
- There will now be a waiting list for all R2W Axis subscriptions save for Axis Historical which will now be the pre-requisite for all future Axis subscriptions. In other words those who purchase Axis Historical post 30 June 2014 will have an opportunity to take up a full Axis software subscription when one becomes available. This process will be subject to its own rules that will enable these clients a fair opportunity when it becomes available.
For further information about any of the above points please
contact me on paul@ratings2win.com.au
Wednesday, 26 March 2014
Gear Changes in the form? Finally.
For what seems an
eternity, punters have been grappling with one very important element of the
form, gear changes. As punters ourselves, we totally understand the
frustrations of the process involved in obtaining accurate gear changes.
Gear changes are of course nothing new. You will
find them published in newspapers and on websites. Until now the problem has
been collating (from the many sources available) an accurate record of this
information and then applying it efficiently. To do this one can use index cards,
make notes into spreadsheets or even glue things into scrapbooks. This really
complicates the recall of that information. It simply isn't where you want it
when you need it.
To top it all off, the gear kit (a list of standard
gear that the horse carries) is a forgotten entity as all that is available are
the gear changes. Its one thing to see synthetic hoof filler as a gear change
and entirely another to remember that the horse has issues with its feet next
time it runs in a race.
FINALLY!
What used to be a tedious and complicated task and one
that has NEVER been completely addressed by any racing software database in
Australia; has now been resolved by ratings2Win in their Axis software. For the
first time, professional clients have access to complete official RISA gear
changes in abbreviated form next to each horse in the form every day in every
TAB race. This quickly cuts through all the tedious work previously required to
maintain such records. Today’s gear changes are now conveniently placed in the
form and this is just the start.
Firstly you will be able to see the gear change against
each of the horses past starts when you view it’s form. This means you will be
able to instantly identify horse’s prior runs with that gear and form an
opinion on any expected performance when the gear change reoccurs. Over time
the entire gear package will also constitute an approximation of the gear the
horse is carrying at today’s start that are not gear changes. This eliminates
the chance of you forgetting potentially vital information. The gear changes
will also be able to be viewed anywhere throughout the program where you would
expect to view horses past starts whether that be in search, key race, my
assessments and other modules.
If that wasn't enough, there is more. R2W Axis will
push the boundaries even further, allowing punters for the first time to be
able to test gear changes as an element of the form. This means that finding an
edge by using gear changes will become a reality. Consider knowing the
statistics on how different trainers use gear changes can uncover hidden edges
totally out of the reach of the majority of punters. Know the effect all the
different gear has on a horse; not an opinion or observation but an actual
fully fledged analysis.
ratings2win understand punters needs and continue to
deliver state of the art software, functionality and data to their clients. The
best thing of course is that this key information is made available to
professional Axis subscribers at no additional cost, whether that is the data
itself or the testing/analysis capabilities of the software.
Monday, 3 February 2014
The Power of Conviction
Convictions based on illusions
Have you ever seen the road shimmer in the heat and swear that you are seeing a puddle in the distance? Or have you been lucky enough to see an even more elaborate Fata Morgana? Google it, there are some far out images to show what can happen. Your mind is deceived by the apparent evidence based on what you perceive. A mirage!
While harmless illusions like the above are fun and intriguing, there is another type of mirage that is far from harmless fun. Illusions that I’m talking about are punting illusions and they cost punters money and time; even more devastating is the fact that most of punters are not even aware of them. In fact I know some well respected punters that are so blinded by their convictions that their demise and the demise of others are based purely on the fact that they observe without evidence.
I should clarify; without long-term evidence. What you observe over a short period of time or a small sample of selections is NOT evidence. Yet every day, hundreds, if not thousands of punters Australia wide invest their money based on conviction obtained by seeing or worst still by just accepting such ‘evidence’.
A personal example of this arose the other day when a friend of mine wanted to eliminate Northern Territory from his punting. There is enough ‘evidence’ that could sway many to extrapolate such idea into a ‘maxim’; poor liquidity, small fields, way too many poor quality horses as it’s often the last destination for many horses being sold down the ranks (or is it up the country). What about the heat? I could go on; these are just a sample of the general ‘ambiance of thoughts’ that many have about NT as a punting destination; for others its SA or TAS. Others create cultivate such ideas about distances or TAB numbers or about just about anything else associated with punting.
The problem starts when such ‘thought ambiance’ meets some ‘cold hard facts’ obtained from observation of few days/weeks; we have all of a sudden a ‘supported theory’ that becomes ingrained into the punters mind. Such evidence is then further reinforced any time he/she looks at the results. Our mind is great at distinguishing patterns, especially when we are focusing on them.
My friend wanted to eliminate NT because his ‘thought ambiance’ meet with the fact that he lost a few bets in a row on NT races, over a few weeks; on short favourites no less, while being in a general betting slump. Such powerful combination of emotional distress over an extended time frame created the need to do something about it. Once I would have wholeheartedly agreed with him, however now I don’t; this is thanks to the work I have done for Ratings2win programming and researching.
I have learned that unless an idea can be tested, over thousands of samples and years of data then a conviction I have could be an unfounded mirage.
Using the tools that I have at my disposal I am able to test my ideas to see the long-term and the true effect of any decisions I want to take. I can tell you that I am mostly disappointed with the results of my ideas; that is the nature of this game, you try and try and try. The difference is that I am disappointed in one test or a series of tests without any financial damage and without a dint in my betting confidence. More importantly when I find something that works, I am then confidant that it will continue to work! I just does!
Take the opposite situation of the general punter; they test their conviction over long-term by punting with their hard eared money and as the true results materialise their betting confidence dwindles which in turn makes it possible for them to make further mistakes and illogical decisions. As a result they start to form new ‘thoughts’ that are really destructive; “can’t be done”, “its all crap”,”the gods are against me” and so on.
The time they have wasted is irrecoverably gone and now to boot they have even more mental crap to deal with and it’s likely that even if they come across a long term profitable method they will discard it at the first sign of trouble! They will then continue jumping from method to method while being in a tail spin or they discontinue their punting in total disillusionment with the whole industry and become bitter, cynical and angry and often broke.
So, finally what is the real truth regarding the performance of the betting method my friend was so quick to ‘analyse’ on his knowledge and the ‘evidence’? Based on the last 4 years the strike rate is 80% and nearly 16% positive POT. Oh yea.... those short priced favourites that no one can win on and the NT racing that is well below par produce great profit from a method based on the unemotional results of tested evidence. A stark reminder that what you are basing your betting decisions might be nothing but a mirage!
Convictions based on real evidence
It’s lucky that my friend is intelligent and the knee jerk reaction decision he considered making lasted about as long as it took for me to do the test. I had the capability to run the test that he didn't and we both learned something valuable. For him the test reinforced the merits of his decision to purchase R2W Axis and he is now a very happy client and for me, well I was just happy to help.
Regardless whether your circumstances reflect the positive or the gloom scenario painted previously or something in between the answer to any racing question is to test your ideas long-term and over a substantial sample size. For that you need a database.
Be it a stack of old ‘Daily Telegraphs’ or a pile of notes scribbled on index cards through to Excel or our R2W Axis program. Each method has a penalty; going through the newspapers/notes is slow and agonisingly prone to error. Excel is faster but you have to learn what you are doing to obtain the information and then to actually use it; also time consuming and unless you cover every possibility from the start you may not have all the data you need and let’s not mention programming/formula errors.
Axis is free from fatigue of repletion and does not require the skills and time to create formulas and code needed in Excel. It’s drawback to some is that it costs money; purely for research purposes the outlay is $1.08 per day. Personally I have to tell you if I found a program like Axis before we wrote Axis there would be no Axis. Everything I need is there and for a buck a day I wouldn't bother with anything else, I would have spent my time researching instead.
What benefits can I obtain from a database?
Long-term analysis is needed to back up your convictions, findings, ideas or prejudices otherwise you are only ever guessing what the true outcome might be and in this game not knowing the truth is painful to endure. Please beware of using long-term test to create small sample size back fitted tests; the correct combination is long-term and large sample size.
Keep up with the pace of the industry. Times have changed, and methods have changed and the market is getting smarter all the time. This change means that in order to continue to find or hone your edge you would most likely benefit from the information in a database to have at least at the same type of tools as your competition. Many on this forum have Axis and other programs, and we all compete with each other in broad terms on the punting plane. This competition is the reason that we are limiting the number of licences for Axis, to preserve the edge we have and those that our clients find.
Having a database is smart. The freedom and insights that it gives you has the same ‘self made’ level of satisfaction; but without wasting hundreds of hours through trial and error creating something that might do half the job. The tools that you have access to in Axis Historical are beyond compare with anything on the market today. Best of all when you find your edge you can seamlessly transition to receiving today’s form and create your selections for today’s betting.
Having a database is fast. Processing 50,000+ races in a few minutes with absolute accuracy with a single click of a button is a far cry from the hundreds of hours some ‘invest’ in their research to arrive at the same conclusion.
Having a Database is easy. Many believe that using a database requires some special skill. It does not; it requires imagination to search for a betting edge. As long as you can post on a forum you can operate a program like Axis. The hardest thing to do is the installation and we can do that for you remotely if needed so there is nothing to worry about.
Axis Database allows you to create unique content. With so many options in Axis, including the ability to import 5 external ratings and to create 2 ratings from scratch within Axis based on user specifications the unique edge that our clients enjoy is almost limitless.
Axis can positively impact your betting today; even if you have the ‘buck a day’ Axis Historical. You can analyse your daily bets as they happened and see where improvements could be made. You might be ignorant of the fact that your bets perform poorly with a certain combination of factors and eliminating them might save you thousands of dollars in the process as well as improving your over all betting confidence. You could analyse your betting approaches and your staking to see how you can minimise risk while getting the best out of your bets. You might be using ratings about which you know next to nothing (outside of the overall percentage strike rate which may be out of date); in this case Axis can help you uncover hidden potential in your investment. You could answer the questions you ask on the forum without wasting time waiting for some Good Samaritan to consult his database and give you the answer. You wouldn't have to reveal your profitable ideas inadvertently unless you wanted to and you could become a better contributor to the forum.
There is no downside to owning a database. A database is like a book, when you don’t need it just sits there, when you do need it, the information that it can provide at your fingertips is invaluable. Axis can be just that for you, a reference point that you consult as needed. Some of our clients have called it addictive, and it is true, you may spend more time on it initially but the time you will spend on it will be time well spent. It will retain its value for many years to come as the program updates are free and all you have to do is keep the data up to date, or not. You will still have a valuable reference even if it’s not up to date. In the old days one could argue that the processing power or storage capacity of a PC prevented the rank and file punter from having the opportunity to run one. That is just a myth now with modern PCs, even my 8yo AMD testing clunker runs Axis just fine.
So is it time for a change? As I mentioned above, change is happening regardless. If you are not winning or if you feel/know that your method could use some fresh angles then continuing on the same path that you have been on up to now might be comfortable but is unlikely to yield anything different; you’ll get the same stuff and may be that isn’t cutting it any more.
While we all have different ideas and approaches to punting knowing the outcomes long-term increases your profitability and overall improves your enjoyment of horse punting. You simply are blind without that information and your competitors are happily passing you by. One thing is for sure, time is money; commencing at just $1.08 per day for Axis Historical, each 5 min you waste is costing you at least that much, just at minimum wage. Exactly how valuable is your time and what new angles could you uncover and what could you accomplish when your time is spent wisely using the Ratings2Win Axis?
Have you ever seen the road shimmer in the heat and swear that you are seeing a puddle in the distance? Or have you been lucky enough to see an even more elaborate Fata Morgana? Google it, there are some far out images to show what can happen. Your mind is deceived by the apparent evidence based on what you perceive. A mirage!
While harmless illusions like the above are fun and intriguing, there is another type of mirage that is far from harmless fun. Illusions that I’m talking about are punting illusions and they cost punters money and time; even more devastating is the fact that most of punters are not even aware of them. In fact I know some well respected punters that are so blinded by their convictions that their demise and the demise of others are based purely on the fact that they observe without evidence.
I should clarify; without long-term evidence. What you observe over a short period of time or a small sample of selections is NOT evidence. Yet every day, hundreds, if not thousands of punters Australia wide invest their money based on conviction obtained by seeing or worst still by just accepting such ‘evidence’.
A personal example of this arose the other day when a friend of mine wanted to eliminate Northern Territory from his punting. There is enough ‘evidence’ that could sway many to extrapolate such idea into a ‘maxim’; poor liquidity, small fields, way too many poor quality horses as it’s often the last destination for many horses being sold down the ranks (or is it up the country). What about the heat? I could go on; these are just a sample of the general ‘ambiance of thoughts’ that many have about NT as a punting destination; for others its SA or TAS. Others create cultivate such ideas about distances or TAB numbers or about just about anything else associated with punting.
The problem starts when such ‘thought ambiance’ meets some ‘cold hard facts’ obtained from observation of few days/weeks; we have all of a sudden a ‘supported theory’ that becomes ingrained into the punters mind. Such evidence is then further reinforced any time he/she looks at the results. Our mind is great at distinguishing patterns, especially when we are focusing on them.
My friend wanted to eliminate NT because his ‘thought ambiance’ meet with the fact that he lost a few bets in a row on NT races, over a few weeks; on short favourites no less, while being in a general betting slump. Such powerful combination of emotional distress over an extended time frame created the need to do something about it. Once I would have wholeheartedly agreed with him, however now I don’t; this is thanks to the work I have done for Ratings2win programming and researching.
I have learned that unless an idea can be tested, over thousands of samples and years of data then a conviction I have could be an unfounded mirage.
Using the tools that I have at my disposal I am able to test my ideas to see the long-term and the true effect of any decisions I want to take. I can tell you that I am mostly disappointed with the results of my ideas; that is the nature of this game, you try and try and try. The difference is that I am disappointed in one test or a series of tests without any financial damage and without a dint in my betting confidence. More importantly when I find something that works, I am then confidant that it will continue to work! I just does!
Take the opposite situation of the general punter; they test their conviction over long-term by punting with their hard eared money and as the true results materialise their betting confidence dwindles which in turn makes it possible for them to make further mistakes and illogical decisions. As a result they start to form new ‘thoughts’ that are really destructive; “can’t be done”, “its all crap”,”the gods are against me” and so on.
The time they have wasted is irrecoverably gone and now to boot they have even more mental crap to deal with and it’s likely that even if they come across a long term profitable method they will discard it at the first sign of trouble! They will then continue jumping from method to method while being in a tail spin or they discontinue their punting in total disillusionment with the whole industry and become bitter, cynical and angry and often broke.
So, finally what is the real truth regarding the performance of the betting method my friend was so quick to ‘analyse’ on his knowledge and the ‘evidence’? Based on the last 4 years the strike rate is 80% and nearly 16% positive POT. Oh yea.... those short priced favourites that no one can win on and the NT racing that is well below par produce great profit from a method based on the unemotional results of tested evidence. A stark reminder that what you are basing your betting decisions might be nothing but a mirage!
Convictions based on real evidence
It’s lucky that my friend is intelligent and the knee jerk reaction decision he considered making lasted about as long as it took for me to do the test. I had the capability to run the test that he didn't and we both learned something valuable. For him the test reinforced the merits of his decision to purchase R2W Axis and he is now a very happy client and for me, well I was just happy to help.
Regardless whether your circumstances reflect the positive or the gloom scenario painted previously or something in between the answer to any racing question is to test your ideas long-term and over a substantial sample size. For that you need a database.
Be it a stack of old ‘Daily Telegraphs’ or a pile of notes scribbled on index cards through to Excel or our R2W Axis program. Each method has a penalty; going through the newspapers/notes is slow and agonisingly prone to error. Excel is faster but you have to learn what you are doing to obtain the information and then to actually use it; also time consuming and unless you cover every possibility from the start you may not have all the data you need and let’s not mention programming/formula errors.
Axis is free from fatigue of repletion and does not require the skills and time to create formulas and code needed in Excel. It’s drawback to some is that it costs money; purely for research purposes the outlay is $1.08 per day. Personally I have to tell you if I found a program like Axis before we wrote Axis there would be no Axis. Everything I need is there and for a buck a day I wouldn't bother with anything else, I would have spent my time researching instead.
What benefits can I obtain from a database?
Long-term analysis is needed to back up your convictions, findings, ideas or prejudices otherwise you are only ever guessing what the true outcome might be and in this game not knowing the truth is painful to endure. Please beware of using long-term test to create small sample size back fitted tests; the correct combination is long-term and large sample size.
Keep up with the pace of the industry. Times have changed, and methods have changed and the market is getting smarter all the time. This change means that in order to continue to find or hone your edge you would most likely benefit from the information in a database to have at least at the same type of tools as your competition. Many on this forum have Axis and other programs, and we all compete with each other in broad terms on the punting plane. This competition is the reason that we are limiting the number of licences for Axis, to preserve the edge we have and those that our clients find.
Having a database is smart. The freedom and insights that it gives you has the same ‘self made’ level of satisfaction; but without wasting hundreds of hours through trial and error creating something that might do half the job. The tools that you have access to in Axis Historical are beyond compare with anything on the market today. Best of all when you find your edge you can seamlessly transition to receiving today’s form and create your selections for today’s betting.
Having a database is fast. Processing 50,000+ races in a few minutes with absolute accuracy with a single click of a button is a far cry from the hundreds of hours some ‘invest’ in their research to arrive at the same conclusion.
Having a Database is easy. Many believe that using a database requires some special skill. It does not; it requires imagination to search for a betting edge. As long as you can post on a forum you can operate a program like Axis. The hardest thing to do is the installation and we can do that for you remotely if needed so there is nothing to worry about.
Axis Database allows you to create unique content. With so many options in Axis, including the ability to import 5 external ratings and to create 2 ratings from scratch within Axis based on user specifications the unique edge that our clients enjoy is almost limitless.
Axis can positively impact your betting today; even if you have the ‘buck a day’ Axis Historical. You can analyse your daily bets as they happened and see where improvements could be made. You might be ignorant of the fact that your bets perform poorly with a certain combination of factors and eliminating them might save you thousands of dollars in the process as well as improving your over all betting confidence. You could analyse your betting approaches and your staking to see how you can minimise risk while getting the best out of your bets. You might be using ratings about which you know next to nothing (outside of the overall percentage strike rate which may be out of date); in this case Axis can help you uncover hidden potential in your investment. You could answer the questions you ask on the forum without wasting time waiting for some Good Samaritan to consult his database and give you the answer. You wouldn't have to reveal your profitable ideas inadvertently unless you wanted to and you could become a better contributor to the forum.
There is no downside to owning a database. A database is like a book, when you don’t need it just sits there, when you do need it, the information that it can provide at your fingertips is invaluable. Axis can be just that for you, a reference point that you consult as needed. Some of our clients have called it addictive, and it is true, you may spend more time on it initially but the time you will spend on it will be time well spent. It will retain its value for many years to come as the program updates are free and all you have to do is keep the data up to date, or not. You will still have a valuable reference even if it’s not up to date. In the old days one could argue that the processing power or storage capacity of a PC prevented the rank and file punter from having the opportunity to run one. That is just a myth now with modern PCs, even my 8yo AMD testing clunker runs Axis just fine.
So is it time for a change? As I mentioned above, change is happening regardless. If you are not winning or if you feel/know that your method could use some fresh angles then continuing on the same path that you have been on up to now might be comfortable but is unlikely to yield anything different; you’ll get the same stuff and may be that isn’t cutting it any more.
While we all have different ideas and approaches to punting knowing the outcomes long-term increases your profitability and overall improves your enjoyment of horse punting. You simply are blind without that information and your competitors are happily passing you by. One thing is for sure, time is money; commencing at just $1.08 per day for Axis Historical, each 5 min you waste is costing you at least that much, just at minimum wage. Exactly how valuable is your time and what new angles could you uncover and what could you accomplish when your time is spent wisely using the Ratings2Win Axis?
Monday, 9 December 2013
How accurate is your form provider?
Recently
we had some correspondence with a website member that proved to be quite
interesting as it exposed the possible level of blissful ignorance and
acceptance amongst the general punting public regarding the accuracy of form
providers.
We are
the first to admit, that to correct everything and maintain a database that is
free from all error is a near impossible task given the daily avalanche of
errors we ALL face resulting from faulty timing methods right through to human
input errors and everything in between. It is also true that there are many
that claim to do OK, at least for the short term, using the so called official
form. Frankly, what else is anyone to do anyway, official form is all there is.
This last
point is not quite correct, official form is NOT all there is. The serious professionals
have for the longest time now produced their own form, usually starting with
the so called official form and then replacing just about everything. These
pros invest hundreds of thousands a year in time and money to make sure that
the data they are using is correct.
That is
one extreme and the other is the official form, sadly there is little in
between that ordinary punters can use. There are corrected race times available
such as those provided by Daily Sectionals produced by Vince Accardi) and whilst
these can be a worthy investment, the ordinary punter still faces the task to
actually make use of that data in a meaningful way. This usually requires a
fair amount of programming skills and financial investment which is for the
most apart not within reach of the average punter. Those that have access to
this type of information know and enjoy the benefits that it provides. I should
point out that Axis is capable of importing and making great use of all the Daily
Sectionals data in a way that no other software can. This takes shape in the
form of reading the data in a structured manner all the way to calculating pars
so that comparing times across different tracks and distances actually makes
sense.
It is
difficult to convey the scope of errors without an example. Below you will find
a table of 29 race time corrections that we (ratings2win) had to change. These occurred
on 5/12/2013 while processing the form for next day. You might look and think, “Well
that is not much from the many hundreds of past starts of each horse, 29 races
is acceptable”. You might be right, had that been the case, but it’s not, each
day a new list is generated often much larger; this list only deals with NEW
errors, thus far not corrected. So those 29 errors will be corrected today and
then again without a notice every time they come up. Over 98% of all races have
incorrect times recorded whether they be overall, sectional or both. This
sample includes errors ranging from 4 lengths to 0.1 lengths. If we accept that
a horse is 3m long and travels 0.16sec per length, trying to consistently and
accurately calculate ratings becomes erratic. We are dealing with discrepancies
of up to 12 meters here and most race finishes come down to lot less. What is
more, each error affects all horses in the race, and since generally most
punters use at least the last few races to assess form, each timing error has
the capacity to affect the form study and ratings calculations for a great deal
of horses over a lengthy period of time.
Mix them all together and you get ..... well work it out for yourself.
Let’s
have a look
RACE
|
Actual
|
Official
|
Lengths Diff
|
01/12/2013~GLDTO~8
|
84.9
|
84.8
|
0.6
|
01/12/2013~LISMO~3
|
72.61
|
72.35
|
1.6
|
01/12/2013~LISMO~8
|
86.15
|
85.76
|
2.4
|
01/12/2013~SWAN~1
|
57.77
|
57.68
|
0.6
|
23/11/2013~EAGLE~3
|
82.49
|
82.37
|
0.7
|
23/11/2013~EAGLE~6
|
82.59
|
82.46
|
0.8
|
23/11/2013~MORNI~3
|
73.72
|
73.92
|
-1.3
|
24/11/2013~CALOU~4
|
59.56
|
59.55
|
0.1
|
24/11/2013~CALOU~5
|
58.96
|
58.98
|
-0.1
|
25/11/2013~TIMAR~1
|
74.32
|
73.86
|
2.9
|
25/11/2013~TIMAR~2
|
73.57
|
73.13
|
2.7
|
25/11/2013~TIMAR~5
|
99.56
|
99.12
|
2.7
|
25/11/2013~TIMAR~7
|
133.42
|
132.77
|
4.1
|
27/11/2013~ASCOT~3
|
92.77
|
92.73
|
0.2
|
27/11/2013~BENDI~4
|
96.44
|
96.2
|
1.5
|
27/11/2013~BENDI~6
|
63.16
|
62.95
|
1.3
|
27/11/2013~EAGLE~3
|
85.24
|
85.11
|
0.8
|
27/11/2013~EAGLE~8
|
70.6
|
70.53
|
0.4
|
29/11/2013~MOONE~1
|
92.23
|
92.15
|
0.5
|
29/11/2013~MOONE~5
|
56.71
|
56.47
|
1.5
|
29/11/2013~MOONE~6
|
59.4
|
59.14
|
1.6
|
29/11/2013~MOONE~8
|
129.83
|
129.56
|
1.7
|
29/11/2013~PAKEN~7
|
82.08
|
82.09
|
-0.1
|
30/11/2013~CRANB~2
|
73.04
|
72.87
|
1.1
|
30/11/2013~GOLD~1
|
147.52
|
147.65
|
-0.8
|
30/11/2013~MORPI~8
|
83.56
|
83.59
|
-0.2
|
30/11/2013~ROSEH~5
|
90.46
|
90.41
|
0.3
|
30/11/2013~YARRA~4
|
71.04
|
70.86
|
1.1
|
30/11/2013~YARRA~6
|
121.4
|
121.21
|
1.2
|
Ok if
time was all that was wrong, we could all just correct it right? But there are
other issues that affect the form. Margin errors, track conditions designations
errors and SP prices and so on occur with great regularity, down to the distance
and class designations which pop up almost as frequently. As stated above, each
error plagues each horse with decreasing importance over at least 5 starts and
then lingers for the next however many starts that you have. The industry can’t
even provide a single uniform name convention for Jockeys, Trainers and
sometimes even track names.
So what
does all that mean for the Axis clients? Simply we endeavour to fix all these
errors. We face the daily frustration of fixing race times, missing/incorrect
sectionals, incorrect margins/track conditions, trials assigned to the wrong
horses, missing settling positions, incorrect settling positions, names,
distances, class descriptions and others on our client’s behalf each morning. I
would be first to admit that the never ending volume of errors and
inconsistencies are such that some we do miss some, but believe that our
tracking error rate is less than 2%.
The value
of this is such that we do not provide race or sectional times and protect most
of our corrections from being exported and shared around so Axis is not for
everyone! The data is available within the program to be used as intended. This
protects the integrity of the data for us and our clients and as a result we
all enjoy the unique edge that our corrections provide well into the future. Coupling
this with intelligent market research produces a superior level of performance
long-term. Having the luxury of not having to second guess the many (good or
bad) performances of individual horses, wondering if they are real or if the
time was out by a second or more, goes a long way towards maintaining a clear
mind so that we can then undertake more detailed form study or simply build systems
which in turn allows all of us to execute our bets with more confidence. The
same can’t be said for most other racing software. The final proof of course
lies in the industry leading results, our client’s subscription take up and
rate of renewal and the fact that we offer transparent daily result summaries that
anyone who is inclined can view before checking them against their data.
Monday, 4 November 2013
Melbourne Cup 2013 Assessments
Hi All,
We have decided to make available our 2013 Melbourne Cup assessments for the entire 24 horse field.
Just click on the following link below to see how each runner is priced and profiles against the rest of the field. Green flagged runners represent the best value horses to back, whilst orange and red coloured horses are horses that you can include in other multiple type bets. Black coloured horses should be avoided.
We hope you enjoy tomorrows racing and wish everyone the best of luck.
http://www.ratings2win.com.au/learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/13-learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/54-melbourne-cup-2013-update
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