UNDERSTANDING SPEED PERFORMANCE RATINGS (SPR)

Speed Performance Ratings (SPR) can be described as an indicator of relative (recent) ability. An understanding of SPR involves much more than a comparison of overall race times.

The DNA of SPR

Whilst the following individual factors aren't in isolation anything new, combined they hold the key towards a better understanding of the value of knowing what a SPR is, so that you can more accurately peg a horses ability.

The four important factors are:

1. Early speed;

2. Sectional times;

3. Peak speed; and

4. Overall race time

SPR in isolation are:

·         not designed to reliably predict the likely outcome of a race; and

·         not designed as an indicator of likely market prices/rank.

It is important to note that in some races, the predictive SPR will, for the most part be inaccurate when measured against market expectations and/or actual results. These inaccuracies can be either positive or negative and it is for this reason, that SPR should not be taken at face value or considered in isolation as an indicator of the likely outcome of a race. Rather, with a thorough understanding of the DNA of SPR and its components, SPR can be considered as a unique method of comparing race horses, many of which have not previously competed against each other or raced at the same tracks and/or distances.

SPR fall into two categories:

·         Historical (assigned to each historical run); or

·         Predictive (an SPR derived from a historical run using a unique algorithm that is then used to compare against other competitors)

Historical SPR

The race winner’s time is adjusted using a complex algorithm for a range of factors including track condition and other proprietary factors before being compared with a ‘par’ time for that track and distance.

The SPR calculated for each historical run is a numerical value that is firstly assigned to the winner of each race. For the purposes of this article and for Axis software users, consider 2 rating points as one length.

For those individuals that create, or for organizations that supply ratings, that are derived from the standard publicly available form (other than R2W), a Rating of 104 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran a time that (when adjusted) was equal to or faster than the par time;

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was shorter than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused faster times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

Conversely, a Rating of 86 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran only as fast as it needed to (to win the race)

·         the winner ran a very slow time (relative to ‘par’ and/or other races on the day);

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was longer than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused slow times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

In summary the Axis SPR assigned to each historical run can be considered an accurate and comparative measurement of how fast a horse ran (relative to par) on that occasion after adjustments have been made.

SPR Scale

Fast performances = high SPR

Slow performances = low SPR

The SPR for all other runners in a race (other than the winner) is derived from the rating assigned to the race winner before being downwardly adjusted for beaten margins.

Logically because horses run at a faster speed over 1000m than they do at 2400m, the incremental adjustment is less as the distance increases. Again I suggest, for the purposes of explanation, that you can assume an adjustment of 2 rating points as being equal to 1 length.

E.g. If a race winner gets an SPR of 100, a horse beaten 2 lengths would get an SPR of ~96.

Predictive SPR

Within Axis, a complex algorithm selects a historical SPR that is then assigned as a run that is representative of each horse’s current ability and likely fitness level. That run is called the qualifying run (QR).

The R2W SPR algorithm encompasses the following assumptions:

·         high ratings can’t be produced by unfit horses;

·         recent form is far more reliable as an indicator of current ability and likely fitness that older form;

·         generally speaking, trainers will place their horses to the best advantage;

·         horses that perform well when resuming from spells will generally continue to do so up to the age of around five; and

·         importantly a good rating can be discarded as an indicator of current ability and fitness after approximately 42 days.

Having selected an appropriate QR, the SPR algorithm then assigns that numerical value to each runner as a Base SPR. This is then interrogated by the R2W computer before determining whether any adjustment is warranted. Once this process is complete the predictive SPR is displayed in the field view of Axis.

Caution needs to be applied to races  that are run in fast times

As has been explained above, races run in fast times (relative to par times) produce high ratings. However, it does not always follow that all horses that run a fast time, and therefore generating a high SPR will subsequently ‘run up’ to that performance at their next race start. However, it is true that horses that can run genuinely fast times, particularly in good class races, have more ability than other horses they may race against in future.

Why R2W SPR are more accurate than other commercially available ratings

Without going into too much detail and to preserve our unique IP, R2W SPR are adjusted for the many errors that exist in overall race times, sectionals, distances, track conditions, class of race etc. We outsource to a private organisation that caters to our specific needs and those of some of Australia's biggest and most successful punters. As a guide it is fair and accurate to suggest that more than 90% of official race and sectional times reordered in Australia are incorrect and contain errors that are often significant. Being able to deliver SPR that are adjusted for these errors is one fundamental reason as to why we and our clients are able to maintain and enjoy a profitable betting edge. No other software provider that we are aware of provides the total solution to this problem, that is for ALL TAB races Australia wide.

Profitable Systems - A practical demonstration

One of the easiest ways to show the powerful nature of Axis is to do with it what it was designed for. Axis was designed to suit the needs of two types of diametrically opposite users. The Professional form analyst will find everything that they need contained within the tools and data available of the Professional version of Axis. Depending on their requirements, the Systems punter will also find everything that they need to develop, test and analyse systems like never before in either the Classic or Advanced versions.

Professional form analysts usually work to a specific process with their success largely dependent on their analytical skills and experience. As such it is not easy to show an example in a practical demonstration. In this post we want to concentrate on showing how the Systems punter, can benefit from using Axis in their day to day punting. By using systems, we can show you some immediate results and examples of what can be created using the Axis software. That is not to say that a Professional form analyst can’t also use systems to isolate shortlists of potential selections rather than trying to handicap the vast number of races available each day. The one main point of difference to remember with Axis is that analysing form is just a small part of its arsenal when you look at developing systems. The art of traditional form study using official race data is commonplace. A R2W we truly believe that  betting edge lies within the tools, combination of  our ratings and other data variables which can then be mixed so as to provide you with a range of profitable systems.

Here is a quick list of points that you should consider when looking at a system.

Number of selections: Unless a system that has for example less than 3 bets per week, a corresponding  sample size of at least of 500 bets, then the possibility is high that the results you have may be not be a true indication of likely performance. The reason why is because mathematical variance influences sets of data especially when the sample size is low. To counter this you need a much larger sample size in order to be confident that when you wager the selections contained within the system going forward, that it is more likely to produce results similar to the data sample tested.

A great illustration of what we are talking about is to toss a coin 10 times. Heads or Tails? We all know that the true odds of either a head or a tail are 50% ($2.00 dividend). The reality is though over a small sample (10 tosses) the results will be anywhere from 10 heads to 10 tails. Try 100 tosses and then a 1,000 tosses. At 1,000 tosses you will discover that the range of results experienced will be closer to expectations. The more tosses the more likely that the true nature of the ‘system’ will be revealed. If you have 50 bets a year do you think that you have the means of accurately predicting the long-term performance of a system? What if you have a suite of systems run concurrently. Even in this instance the larger sample of bets cannot be used confidently as a marker of future performance because in the end each system is its own entity.

Rules: The great thing about having a large sample, is that back-fitted systems with illogical rules do not perform as favorably as they have a tendency with those that have a smaller sample. Generally the lower the sample size has the user falling into the trap of applying a greater the number of filters that in turn display an unrealistic expectation of likely future outcomes. There is nothing wrong with filters if they are applied correctly. Long term filters that are applied using carefully well thought out logic will prevail whereas those that are back fitted will not.

As an example of the advantages of using Axis, we have displayed the results from some of our successful systems.  We understand the serious nature of betting for a profit and as such it is not a pursuit of fun or entertainment. Like ourselves and our products, our Axis software is suitable for anyone who already has or wants to develop a serious and profitable approach to their betting. We use many of the same functions in Axis for our own betting and we depend on the continued performance of our ratings, tool and data just as our clients do. The simple economic reasons as to why we are willing to share our successful tools and data with our clients is that they participate in meeting the ongoing development and data costs through their subscriptions.

Two of the systems results found below are featured on this forum and our website. We provide free tips from a currently featured system. Our results and past performance are on public record. Outside of these two systems, no other system is being sold, given away or thrown in with an Axis purchase, that is not what we are about.  What we are showing you is but a sample of the capabilities of this tool,  the work, is what you will have to do yourself!

You will need to devote some time to become familiar with the Axis software. By investing your time you will learn what it takes to become a long term winning punter. You will have the opportunity to research and develop profitable systems whilst availing yourself with some of best education and advice from successful punters. Having said that, the software is simple and intuitive to use. We are more than happy to assist you, so that you can derive the benefits that Axis offers, regardless of whether you are a Professional form analyst or Systems punter. This will help  you in become a better and more educated punter. We will arm you with the knowledge you need to be successful. We pride ourselves on and are known for, our excellent customer service. Our goal for this company is to develop relationships with our clients and partners that are long term, successful and mutually profitable.

The system results below are based on individual systems run over the last 1243 days with the profits based on betting a flat 1% of your betting bank, assuming a $10,000 starting bank. The goal was to produce around 1-2 bets per system per day using a realistic mix of profitable long-term systems that offer a combination of styles using both long shots and favourites.

System Name	Bets	Wins	Strike	Collect	Avg. Div	Profit	Bank Growth
Profitable Favourites	2,838	1,316	46.4%	$297,272	$2.25	$13,372	1.34 x
Home Track Advantage	2,817	796	28.3%	$322,302	$4.05	$40,600	4.06 x
Sample System No. 1	1,209	244	20.2%	$153,680	$6.30	$32,780	3.28 x
Sample System No. 2	1,513	115	7.6%	$176,820	$15.40	$25,520	2.55 x

Each of these systems can be improved using a combination of the better market prices available and by employing wagering techniques such as proportional betting.

Over the 3.5 year period under review, if you had invested even just $10 on each selection, and used the basic pricing models given, you would have fully funded the costs of your Axis and subscription and had money to spend. What about all the other profitable systems that you could create? This highlights just one example of how Axis can benefit you and turn you into a long term winning punter.

Contact us today and ask about our 14-day No Risk Money Back Guarantee on the entire Axis product range.

Good Punting,

The R2W Team

Home Track Advantage - Does it exist and can you profit from it?

There has always been debate from form analysts and media commentators regarding the issue of whether a home track advantage exists for individual trainers. Some examples of this would be Peter Snowden (Warwick Farm), Gai Waterhouse (Randwick), and Chris Waller (Rosehill).

Can you make money from horses that have a Home Track Advantage? 

The statistics show that for metropolitan racing the notion of home track advantage does not exist. The same does not apply though to provincial and country racing. In these jurisdictions our data demonstrates conclusively that when combined with a few other unique variables (found only in R2W data) that the home track advantage can deliver significant profits from a strong sample size.

So the answer to can you make money from horses that have a home track advantage? is YES, providing you have access to the unique data and variables contained within R2W Axis.

Following on from our successful Profitable Favourites system, we have once again employed the Axis Selection Finder and Analyser for the purposes of developing a system based around the Home Track Advantage theme. For a limited period of time the FREE selections from this system will be showcased on this forum and our website. They will take over from the Profitable Favourites selections.

The historical results for the Home Track Advantage system are as follows:

Long term Results: 05/03/2010 to 31/07/2013. 1245 days.

Cumulative Number of Bets - 2,822

(2 per day on average)

Strike Rate - 28.2%

Positive POT 14.30% (best of NSW/SP). 

See the results file updated monthly to July 2013

Details: These selections are bets regardless of price or track condition. Expect around 2 selections per day on average.

Betting Analysis:

Assumes a starting bank of $10,000.

Flat Staking betting 1% of starting bank: $40,522.00, maximum bank risk 22.4% and average bank risk 9.8%.

Constant Proportional betting to collect 4% of starting bank: $24,128.69, maximum bank risk 19.3% and average bank risk 8.5%.

Variable Proportional betting to collect 4% of bank: $57,662.25, maximum bank risk 52.8% and average bank risk 11.7%.

Importantly you can obtain the rules for any system found on this forum or our website by purchasing the appropriate Axis stater pack and annual subscription. Please contact us for more details.