How accurate is your form provider?

Recently we had some correspondence with a website member that proved to be quite interesting as it exposed the possible level of blissful ignorance and acceptance amongst the general punting public regarding the accuracy of form providers.

We are the first to admit, that to correct everything and maintain a database that is free from all error is a near impossible task given the daily avalanche of errors we ALL face resulting from faulty timing methods right through to human input errors and everything in between. It is also true that there are many that claim to do OK, at least for the short term, using the so called official form. Frankly, what else is anyone to do anyway, official form is all there is.

This last point is not quite correct, official form is NOT all there is. The serious professionals have for the longest time now produced their own form, usually starting with the so called official form and then replacing just about everything. These pros invest hundreds of thousands a year in time and money to make sure that the data they are using is correct.

That is one extreme and the other is the official form, sadly there is little in between that ordinary punters can use. There are corrected race times available such as those provided by Daily Sectionals produced by Vince Accardi) and whilst these can be a worthy investment, the ordinary punter still faces the task to actually make use of that data in a meaningful way. This usually requires a fair amount of programming skills and financial investment which is for the most apart not within reach of the average punter. Those that have access to this type of information know and enjoy the benefits that it provides. I should point out that Axis is capable of importing and making great use of all the Daily Sectionals data in a way that no other software can. This takes shape in the form of reading the data in a structured manner all the way to calculating pars so that comparing times across different tracks and distances actually makes sense.

It is difficult to convey the scope of errors without an example. Below you will find a table of 29 race time corrections that we (ratings2win) had to change. These occurred on 5/12/2013 while processing the form for next day. You might look and think, “Well that is not much from the many hundreds of past starts of each horse, 29 races is acceptable”. You might be right, had that been the case, but it’s not, each day a new list is generated often much larger; this list only deals with NEW errors, thus far not corrected. So those 29 errors will be corrected today and then again without a notice every time they come up. Over 98% of all races have incorrect times recorded whether they be overall, sectional or both. This sample includes errors ranging from 4 lengths to 0.1 lengths. If we accept that a horse is 3m long and travels 0.16sec per length, trying to consistently and accurately calculate ratings becomes erratic. We are dealing with discrepancies of up to 12 meters here and most race finishes come down to lot less. What is more, each error affects all horses in the race, and since generally most punters use at least the last few races to assess form, each timing error has the capacity to affect the form study and ratings calculations for a great deal of horses over a lengthy period of  time. Mix them all together and you get ..... well work it out for yourself.

Let’s have a look

RACE	Actual	Official	Lengths Diff
01/12/2013~GLDTO~8	84.9	84.8	0.6
01/12/2013~LISMO~3	72.61	72.35	1.6
01/12/2013~LISMO~8	86.15	85.76	2.4
01/12/2013~SWAN~1	57.77	57.68	0.6
23/11/2013~EAGLE~3	82.49	82.37	0.7
23/11/2013~EAGLE~6	82.59	82.46	0.8
23/11/2013~MORNI~3	73.72	73.92	-1.3
24/11/2013~CALOU~4	59.56	59.55	0.1
24/11/2013~CALOU~5	58.96	58.98	-0.1
25/11/2013~TIMAR~1	74.32	73.86	2.9
25/11/2013~TIMAR~2	73.57	73.13	2.7
25/11/2013~TIMAR~5	99.56	99.12	2.7
25/11/2013~TIMAR~7	133.42	132.77	4.1
27/11/2013~ASCOT~3	92.77	92.73	0.2
27/11/2013~BENDI~4	96.44	96.2	1.5
27/11/2013~BENDI~6	63.16	62.95	1.3
27/11/2013~EAGLE~3	85.24	85.11	0.8
27/11/2013~EAGLE~8	70.6	70.53	0.4
29/11/2013~MOONE~1	92.23	92.15	0.5
29/11/2013~MOONE~5	56.71	56.47	1.5
29/11/2013~MOONE~6	59.4	59.14	1.6
29/11/2013~MOONE~8	129.83	129.56	1.7
29/11/2013~PAKEN~7	82.08	82.09	-0.1
30/11/2013~CRANB~2	73.04	72.87	1.1
30/11/2013~GOLD~1	147.52	147.65	-0.8
30/11/2013~MORPI~8	83.56	83.59	-0.2
30/11/2013~ROSEH~5	90.46	90.41	0.3
30/11/2013~YARRA~4	71.04	70.86	1.1
30/11/2013~YARRA~6	121.4	121.21	1.2

Ok if time was all that was wrong, we could all just correct it right? But there are other issues that affect the form. Margin errors, track conditions designations errors and SP prices and so on occur with great regularity, down to the distance and class designations which pop up almost as frequently. As stated above, each error plagues each horse with decreasing importance over at least 5 starts and then lingers for the next however many starts that you have. The industry can’t even provide a single uniform name convention for Jockeys, Trainers and sometimes even track names.

So what does all that mean for the Axis clients? Simply we endeavour to fix all these errors. We face the daily frustration of fixing race times, missing/incorrect sectionals, incorrect margins/track conditions, trials assigned to the wrong horses, missing settling positions, incorrect settling positions, names, distances, class descriptions and others on our client’s behalf each morning. I would be first to admit that the never ending volume of errors and inconsistencies are such that some we do miss some, but believe that our tracking error rate is less than 2%.

The value of this is such that we do not provide race or sectional times and protect most of our corrections from being exported and shared around so Axis is not for everyone! The data is available within the program to be used as intended. This protects the integrity of the data for us and our clients and as a result we all enjoy the unique edge that our corrections provide well into the future. Coupling this with intelligent market research produces a superior level of performance long-term. Having the luxury of not having to second guess the many (good or bad) performances of individual horses, wondering if they are real or if the time was out by a second or more, goes a long way towards maintaining a clear mind so that we can then undertake more detailed form study or simply build systems which in turn allows all of us to execute our bets with more confidence. The same can’t be said for most other racing software. The final proof of course lies in the industry leading results, our client’s subscription take up and rate of renewal and the fact that we offer transparent daily result summaries that anyone who is inclined can view before checking them against their data.

Melbourne Cup 2013 Assessments

Hi All,

We have decided to make available our 2013 Melbourne Cup assessments for the entire 24 horse field.

Just click on the following link below to see how each runner is priced and profiles against the rest of the field. Green flagged runners represent the best value horses to back, whilst orange and red coloured horses are horses that you can include in other multiple type bets. Black coloured horses should be avoided.

We hope you enjoy tomorrows racing and wish everyone the best of luck.

http://www.ratings2win.com.au/learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/13-learn-to-bet-like-a-pro/54-melbourne-cup-2013-update

R2W Axis Software - Independent review

RACING MY PERFECT INVESTMENT 3

By Trevor Johns

CHAPTER TWO -BET SELECTION AND ANALYSIS SOFTWARE

RATINGS2WIN AXIS SOFTWARE

This software is the new kid on the block, founded by Paul Daily and Michal Matula, with many years of combined knowledge behind them. They have developed the very sophisticated software Axis, which may well become the new standard for accuracy, performance, and the easy learning curve. The Ratings2win company was launched in May 2012 with the sole aim of excellence of the product, and with the key data Axis generates that is not available in any other public software on the market, in my view, they have succeeded.

What is not generally known or spoken of, about horse racing software, is that each of them has been designed with a particular focus in mind, usually built around their flagship ratings product. And those incorporating analysis or system developer software, usually have features not found on the others. To those who ask me why I use more than one program, I explain it is like the old marriage counselor advice. You can’t get everything you want in one person, so you must compromise. And for me, it’s the same with racing software. For most people this doesn't matter, because each software product does a good job in isolation. But I am a researcher and numbers cruncher besides the betting side of things, and I need more. It’s early days yet, but the Axis software may well do it all.

Seeing as most of you would never have come across Axis before, I will run through some features that have proven to be very useful and profitable to me, some of which in one form or another are available elsewhere, but all not in the same package.

·   20 start form plus barrier trials.

·   Research and develop winning methods/systems.

·   Increase profit with the powerful and fast Betting Analyser.

·   Isolate specific horses/bets for back testing.

·   Use the most comprehensive Consensus to create your own market.

·   Live update with scratchings, track condition changes, etc.

·   Find key races to assess the strength of past form (P).

·   Accurate first and last sectional times (P).

·   Accurate speed maps (P).

·   Link it all together by implementing a winning selection process.

(P)denotes only available within the Professional Version.

For those of you currently using a competitor’s software program, and you wish to upgrade to one of the Ratings2win Axis software packages, contact Ratings2win and ask for your special transition discount. All this is backed up with a 14 day guarantee that if you are not completely satisfied with the Axis software, your full purchase price will be refunded. Paul will help you every step of way. This is cutting edge software. Seriously consider Axis as it may well prove to be the best yet.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tm-1-QyzzqQ

Contact:  Paul Daily.

Website:  www.ratings2win.com.au

Email:      paul@ratings2win.com.au

Phone:    07 31032262

Twitter:   https://twitter.com/PaulD01

Facebook:https://www.facebook.com/ratings2win

New Axis release version 22-09-2013

We are pleased to announce the release of yet another upgrade for September; the result of our mission to continuously improve our products. This version contains several small improvements which enhance Axis functionality. It also includes a new innovation that again makes Axis the number 1 choice for ratings, system development and handicapping.

Ratings2Win is excited to release a function that is missing from all other commercial software providers. This function is the Daily Systems Automation. The first stages, explained below are but a starting point in our development of Axis Automation. These time saving features  assist clients by removing the mundane tasks from their workload. Obviously The less a client has to do to produce their selections the better. This function also reduces the likelihood of errors and missing selections.

Axis now automates the running of systems that the client sets up as those that are to be run on race day. This is seamlessly integrated into the program on several levels. When a day is loaded into the Race Day Portal (the main program interface) all the above systems are run automatically for our clients taking but a few seconds to complete. The resultant selections are displayed in a separate text file in race time order with each selection having the corresponding system name. It doesn't stop here, the program then flags every race where there is a system selection in the Races Grid View, and also flags each horse that is a selection in the Horses Field View. There is no way that you can miss a selection as you go through the races of the day.

This alone would set Axis apart from all other programs however we have gone further. Each time that you update Axis with new information such as scratchings, track condition changes, jockey changes, dividends, distance and other changes Axis will re-run the systems again seamlessly taking into account all this information and producing a fresh, up-to-the-minute current list of selections.

So that our clients do not miss any changes to their selections, Axis is capable of saying (by speaking over your PC sound system) any changes so that you are aware that your selections have changed. This is particularly effective if you have a large number of systems producing many selections.

Again this is seamless and requires nothing from the user other than a click of a button to update the information.

Once the results are known the overall systems selections printout will also include the results so that you can see at a glance how your selections have performed for the day.

Simply put, you will not miss out on a system selection if you have Axis doing the work! Your selections will be up-to-the-minute correct, leaving you to concentrate on your work and your betting.

Similar functionality is available to your black book selections. When you load a day in the Race Day Portal, your black book selections are printed in a separate document and Axis then flags every race where there is a black book selection in the Races Grid view and flags which horses are the selections in the Horses Field view. As with your systems, there is no way that you can miss a black book selection as you go through the races of the day. The list and flags would is also updated as new information comes to hand; in the case of a black book it will be a scratching or jockey changes.

We are excited to be able to offer our clients this type of automation as we know the value of having your selections and black book updated with the latest information as punters just like you, we deal with the dynamic nature of betting every day. A missed winning selection is hard to reconcile when such loss could be easily prevented by utilising the above functionality.

As indicated above this is just the first stage of where Axis is going in terms of automation. Above all we are punters, and having a program doing more and more of our work appeals to us, just as we know that it appeals to our clients and other punters. There is nothing like the security and confidence of executing a full day of betting knowing that all your selections are true.

Lastly I would like to note that this upgrade is FREE and available to all our clients in every subscription level. You know that once you purchase Axis at a specific level all upgrades that apply to that level are free regardless of the nature of benefits and size of the upgrade. This is just another way we help our clients to eliminate any hidden ongoing costs. Obviously in respect of our clients this  assists in their budgeting as all that is payable is the subscription cost of the data once their starter pack has been purchased.

Latest Axis Update version 13-09-2013

Daily Sectionals is the brain child of Melbourne based form whiz Vince Accardi. His interest in racing escalated from the time he was 18 and he has been seriously doing form for the past 30 years.

His sectional time analysis and Incremental Velocity Ratings are now provided to Racing Victoria Stewards, in addition to being pursued by a number of high profile form analysts around the country. His IVR Reports and Daily Sectionals are at the cutting edge of form analysis in this country.

As Vince is also client of Ratings2Win and uses Axis as his choice of racing software, we have decided to make available functionality to support not only Vince but other Ratings2Win clients that use Daily Sectionals IVR data. This evolution has been nearly 2 years in the making. 

In respect of our most recent Axis update we are pleased to announce five additional features namely:

Axis now supports the inclusion of additional sectional data brought to you by Daily Sectionals (DS), Vince Accardi. Clients of DS who subscribe to the IVR reports can now import that data directly into Axis for detailed analysis within the Past 20 data module. A new and unique way of interpreting the DS IVR rankings is now possible and is exclusive to DS clients that also use R2W Axis. These can be viewed within the Horse Search, Compare and Previous Encounters and Advanced Compare modules;

You now have the ability to analyse systems across more than 115 filters on a proportional betting basis. This is independent of the Betting Analysis module;

You will also notice that we have now provided a Horse Search shortcut accessible from all screens. This is located next to the Save Settings button at the bottom of each screen. You can still access Horse Search within the Pro Functions module;

Set Columns function available from the right click menu in Past 20 will allow you to set the order of columns to either show or hide any columns past the Track Condition Column. This setting is then replicated in the other Past 20 data contained in Horse Search and Key Race. The same setting will also be used in the Advanced Compare module. When you call up the Column Order module you will see the available columns in the left window. The default showing all columns is displayed in the right window. The right window is where you actually set up your columns. If you delete a column in the right window you will not see it in your Past data. If you change your mind you can always drag the column from the left window to view it once again. You can also use the reset default columns to set the entire lot of columns back to their default positions; and

Extended jockey and trainer rating classifications (see RDP Field View Grid manual for details).

UNDERSTANDING SPEED PERFORMANCE RATINGS (SPR)

Speed Performance Ratings (SPR) can be described as an indicator of relative (recent) ability. An understanding of SPR involves much more than a comparison of overall race times.

The DNA of SPR

Whilst the following individual factors aren't in isolation anything new, combined they hold the key towards a better understanding of the value of knowing what a SPR is, so that you can more accurately peg a horses ability.

The four important factors are:

1. Early speed;

2. Sectional times;

3. Peak speed; and

4. Overall race time

SPR in isolation are:

·         not designed to reliably predict the likely outcome of a race; and

·         not designed as an indicator of likely market prices/rank.

It is important to note that in some races, the predictive SPR will, for the most part be inaccurate when measured against market expectations and/or actual results. These inaccuracies can be either positive or negative and it is for this reason, that SPR should not be taken at face value or considered in isolation as an indicator of the likely outcome of a race. Rather, with a thorough understanding of the DNA of SPR and its components, SPR can be considered as a unique method of comparing race horses, many of which have not previously competed against each other or raced at the same tracks and/or distances.

SPR fall into two categories:

·         Historical (assigned to each historical run); or

·         Predictive (an SPR derived from a historical run using a unique algorithm that is then used to compare against other competitors)

Historical SPR

The race winner’s time is adjusted using a complex algorithm for a range of factors including track condition and other proprietary factors before being compared with a ‘par’ time for that track and distance.

The SPR calculated for each historical run is a numerical value that is firstly assigned to the winner of each race. For the purposes of this article and for Axis software users, consider 2 rating points as one length.

For those individuals that create, or for organizations that supply ratings, that are derived from the standard publicly available form (other than R2W), a Rating of 104 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran a time that (when adjusted) was equal to or faster than the par time;

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was shorter than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused faster times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

Conversely, a Rating of 86 for a race winner could indicate any one of the following:

·         the winner ran only as fast as it needed to (to win the race)

·         the winner ran a very slow time (relative to ‘par’ and/or other races on the day);

·         the official time was incorrect;

·         the distance of the race was longer than the official distance; or

·         the prevailing conditions caused slow times (e.g. wind factor, track surface).

In summary the Axis SPR assigned to each historical run can be considered an accurate and comparative measurement of how fast a horse ran (relative to par) on that occasion after adjustments have been made.

SPR Scale

Fast performances = high SPR

Slow performances = low SPR

The SPR for all other runners in a race (other than the winner) is derived from the rating assigned to the race winner before being downwardly adjusted for beaten margins.

Logically because horses run at a faster speed over 1000m than they do at 2400m, the incremental adjustment is less as the distance increases. Again I suggest, for the purposes of explanation, that you can assume an adjustment of 2 rating points as being equal to 1 length.

E.g. If a race winner gets an SPR of 100, a horse beaten 2 lengths would get an SPR of ~96.

Predictive SPR

Within Axis, a complex algorithm selects a historical SPR that is then assigned as a run that is representative of each horse’s current ability and likely fitness level. That run is called the qualifying run (QR).

The R2W SPR algorithm encompasses the following assumptions:

·         high ratings can’t be produced by unfit horses;

·         recent form is far more reliable as an indicator of current ability and likely fitness that older form;

·         generally speaking, trainers will place their horses to the best advantage;

·         horses that perform well when resuming from spells will generally continue to do so up to the age of around five; and

·         importantly a good rating can be discarded as an indicator of current ability and fitness after approximately 42 days.

Having selected an appropriate QR, the SPR algorithm then assigns that numerical value to each runner as a Base SPR. This is then interrogated by the R2W computer before determining whether any adjustment is warranted. Once this process is complete the predictive SPR is displayed in the field view of Axis.

Caution needs to be applied to races  that are run in fast times

As has been explained above, races run in fast times (relative to par times) produce high ratings. However, it does not always follow that all horses that run a fast time, and therefore generating a high SPR will subsequently ‘run up’ to that performance at their next race start. However, it is true that horses that can run genuinely fast times, particularly in good class races, have more ability than other horses they may race against in future.

Why R2W SPR are more accurate than other commercially available ratings

Without going into too much detail and to preserve our unique IP, R2W SPR are adjusted for the many errors that exist in overall race times, sectionals, distances, track conditions, class of race etc. We outsource to a private organisation that caters to our specific needs and those of some of Australia's biggest and most successful punters. As a guide it is fair and accurate to suggest that more than 90% of official race and sectional times reordered in Australia are incorrect and contain errors that are often significant. Being able to deliver SPR that are adjusted for these errors is one fundamental reason as to why we and our clients are able to maintain and enjoy a profitable betting edge. No other software provider that we are aware of provides the total solution to this problem, that is for ALL TAB races Australia wide.

Profitable Systems - A practical demonstration

One of the easiest ways to show the powerful nature of Axis is to do with it what it was designed for. Axis was designed to suit the needs of two types of diametrically opposite users. The Professional form analyst will find everything that they need contained within the tools and data available of the Professional version of Axis. Depending on their requirements, the Systems punter will also find everything that they need to develop, test and analyse systems like never before in either the Classic or Advanced versions.

Professional form analysts usually work to a specific process with their success largely dependent on their analytical skills and experience. As such it is not easy to show an example in a practical demonstration. In this post we want to concentrate on showing how the Systems punter, can benefit from using Axis in their day to day punting. By using systems, we can show you some immediate results and examples of what can be created using the Axis software. That is not to say that a Professional form analyst can’t also use systems to isolate shortlists of potential selections rather than trying to handicap the vast number of races available each day. The one main point of difference to remember with Axis is that analysing form is just a small part of its arsenal when you look at developing systems. The art of traditional form study using official race data is commonplace. A R2W we truly believe that  betting edge lies within the tools, combination of  our ratings and other data variables which can then be mixed so as to provide you with a range of profitable systems.

Here is a quick list of points that you should consider when looking at a system.

Number of selections: Unless a system that has for example less than 3 bets per week, a corresponding  sample size of at least of 500 bets, then the possibility is high that the results you have may be not be a true indication of likely performance. The reason why is because mathematical variance influences sets of data especially when the sample size is low. To counter this you need a much larger sample size in order to be confident that when you wager the selections contained within the system going forward, that it is more likely to produce results similar to the data sample tested.

A great illustration of what we are talking about is to toss a coin 10 times. Heads or Tails? We all know that the true odds of either a head or a tail are 50% ($2.00 dividend). The reality is though over a small sample (10 tosses) the results will be anywhere from 10 heads to 10 tails. Try 100 tosses and then a 1,000 tosses. At 1,000 tosses you will discover that the range of results experienced will be closer to expectations. The more tosses the more likely that the true nature of the ‘system’ will be revealed. If you have 50 bets a year do you think that you have the means of accurately predicting the long-term performance of a system? What if you have a suite of systems run concurrently. Even in this instance the larger sample of bets cannot be used confidently as a marker of future performance because in the end each system is its own entity.

Rules: The great thing about having a large sample, is that back-fitted systems with illogical rules do not perform as favorably as they have a tendency with those that have a smaller sample. Generally the lower the sample size has the user falling into the trap of applying a greater the number of filters that in turn display an unrealistic expectation of likely future outcomes. There is nothing wrong with filters if they are applied correctly. Long term filters that are applied using carefully well thought out logic will prevail whereas those that are back fitted will not.

As an example of the advantages of using Axis, we have displayed the results from some of our successful systems.  We understand the serious nature of betting for a profit and as such it is not a pursuit of fun or entertainment. Like ourselves and our products, our Axis software is suitable for anyone who already has or wants to develop a serious and profitable approach to their betting. We use many of the same functions in Axis for our own betting and we depend on the continued performance of our ratings, tool and data just as our clients do. The simple economic reasons as to why we are willing to share our successful tools and data with our clients is that they participate in meeting the ongoing development and data costs through their subscriptions.

Two of the systems results found below are featured on this forum and our website. We provide free tips from a currently featured system. Our results and past performance are on public record. Outside of these two systems, no other system is being sold, given away or thrown in with an Axis purchase, that is not what we are about.  What we are showing you is but a sample of the capabilities of this tool,  the work, is what you will have to do yourself!

You will need to devote some time to become familiar with the Axis software. By investing your time you will learn what it takes to become a long term winning punter. You will have the opportunity to research and develop profitable systems whilst availing yourself with some of best education and advice from successful punters. Having said that, the software is simple and intuitive to use. We are more than happy to assist you, so that you can derive the benefits that Axis offers, regardless of whether you are a Professional form analyst or Systems punter. This will help  you in become a better and more educated punter. We will arm you with the knowledge you need to be successful. We pride ourselves on and are known for, our excellent customer service. Our goal for this company is to develop relationships with our clients and partners that are long term, successful and mutually profitable.

The system results below are based on individual systems run over the last 1243 days with the profits based on betting a flat 1% of your betting bank, assuming a $10,000 starting bank. The goal was to produce around 1-2 bets per system per day using a realistic mix of profitable long-term systems that offer a combination of styles using both long shots and favourites.

System Name	Bets	Wins	Strike	Collect	Avg. Div	Profit	Bank Growth
Profitable Favourites	2,838	1,316	46.4%	$297,272	$2.25	$13,372	1.34 x
Home Track Advantage	2,817	796	28.3%	$322,302	$4.05	$40,600	4.06 x
Sample System No. 1	1,209	244	20.2%	$153,680	$6.30	$32,780	3.28 x
Sample System No. 2	1,513	115	7.6%	$176,820	$15.40	$25,520	2.55 x

Each of these systems can be improved using a combination of the better market prices available and by employing wagering techniques such as proportional betting.

Over the 3.5 year period under review, if you had invested even just $10 on each selection, and used the basic pricing models given, you would have fully funded the costs of your Axis and subscription and had money to spend. What about all the other profitable systems that you could create? This highlights just one example of how Axis can benefit you and turn you into a long term winning punter.

Contact us today and ask about our 14-day No Risk Money Back Guarantee on the entire Axis product range.

Good Punting,

The R2W Team